Exploring the role of social media sentiment in corporate Bitcoin adoption: evidence from MicroStrategy and market dynamics
摘要
This study examines whether social media sentiment influences corporate Bitcoin adoption by analyzing the relationship between Reddit sentiment, firm‑level Bitcoin acquisition volumes, and MicroStrategy’s stock price movements. Using monthly data from 2020 to 2025, the analysis employs a Huber regression model and mediation framework to assess whether sentiment predicts acquisition intensity and whether stock price reactions mediate this relationship. The results show that Reddit sentiment does not significantly explain corporate Bitcoin acquisitions, while Bitcoin price changes emerge as the dominant driver of adoption behavior. Mediation tests further indicate that MicroStrategy’s stock price movements do not transmit the effect of sentiment onto acquisition decisions. Complementary thematic analysis of Reddit posts reveals a polarized public discourse, with optimism about Bitcoin’s long‑term value coexisting with concerns about market concentration and regulatory uncertainty, including reactions to the U.S. BITCOIN Act of 2025. These findings suggest that corporate Bitcoin adoption is shaped primarily by market conditions rather than social media sentiment, refining expectations derived from behavioral finance and institutional theory. The study contributes to the literature by providing one of the first mixed‑methods assessments of sentiment and corporate cryptocurrency adoption, highlighting the need for future research on firm‑specific sentiment and cross‑platform dynamics.