This study empirically examines the implications of digital transformation (DT) within the service industry of Gyeonggi Province of Korea. Utilizing panel data from medium-sized and small service enterprises, the research employs fixed-effects panel regression, propensity score matching, and the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) staggered difference-in-differences estimator to analyze DT's effects on corporate performance. The analysis reveals a significant digital divide: adoption rates are concentrated in information and communications (58%) and finance (37%), while traditional sectors like real estate remain at 2%. Technology utilization is overwhelmingly focused on new product and service development rather than internal process efficiency. The effect of DT on EBITDA is inconclusive across estimators: the baseline TWFE specification yields a positive coefficient (0.072, p < 0.05), but the preferred Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) staggered DiD estimator produces a statistically significant negative estimate (− 0.034, p = 0.048). These conflicting results preclude any assertion of a robust positive effect on profitability. No significant short-run effect on sales revenue was detected under any specification, consistent with the productivity paradox (Brynjolfsson and Hitt 2003). Replacing the binary DT indicator with a continuous technology count (0–9) yields no significant marginal effect, suggesting that organizational integration depth matters more than the number of technologies adopted. Companies engaging in in-house development experienced a significant short-term sales decline of − 4.4%, indicating an initial cost-absorption phase, while large enterprises realized a 6.1 percentage point advantage over SMEs—a pattern confirmed nationally. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DT-active firms experienced approximately 10 percentage points less revenue decline, though pre-pandemic selection differences preclude a strictly causal interpretation. Comparison against national benchmarks confirms that the core findings reflect nationwide structural patterns rather than region-specific artifacts. The study concludes that policy must shift from “adoption-rate” metrics to “substantive utilization” and long-term structural support to help SMEs endure the cost-absorption phase of DT.