Connectedness and portfolio applications across asset classes: evidence from Türkiye under high inflation, exchange rate volatility, and macroeconomic fragility
摘要
In this study, connectedness and portfolio applications among popular investment instruments in Türkiye, as an example of an emerging market in which high inflation, exchange rate volatility, and macroeconomic fragilities are experienced markedly, are investigated. In the study, the XU100 index is used to represent the stock market, gold to represent the commodity market, bitcoin to represent the cryptocurrency market, the US dollar index (DXY) to represent the foreign exchange market, and the 2-year government bond as the interest rate indicator. The findings show that connectedness among assets is relatively weak under normal market conditions, but becomes markedly stronger when there are extremes in the market. The dynamic analyses reveal that connectedness changes significantly over time and is affected by both global shocks and economic and political developments specific to Türkiye. In the pairwise portfolio analysis, while bond, gold, and DXY stand out as effective risk-reducing assets, bitcoin is found not to be an effective hedging instrument. In the multi-asset portfolio analysis, while the MVP strategy is found to be the most successful strategy in terms of capital preservation and risk minimization, the MCP and MCoP strategies are found to be more advantageous for investors with higher risk tolerance and those aiming for long-term wealth growth. Investors are advised to adopt dynamic portfolio strategies that vary according to their risk profiles and are sensitive to market regimes.