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<p>This study examines the application of three parametric mortality models; Gompertz, Makeham, and Weibull to analyze mortality patterns and calculate annuity-due values for male and female populations in Nigeria, Ghana, and Benin. Using World Health Organization Global Health Observatory data from 2000 to 2019, mortality parameters were estimated through optimization techniques, and the fitted parameters were applied to comprehensive annuity-due calculations using Nigerian data as a representative case study. Results demonstrate that the Makeham model showed the best overall fit based on AIC/BIC and RMSE across adult ages and most reliable fit across all three countries, outperforming both the Gompertz and Weibull specifications. Its incorporation of an age-independent mortality component allows it to capture baseline risks more accurately, especially at younger ages. The Gompertz model performs moderately well, while the Weibull model shows adequate but comparatively weaker performance. Mortality patterns across Nigeria, Ghana, and Benin exhibit remarkable convergence over the 2000–2019 period, with previously large cross-country differentials narrowing substantially. Gender differences remain pronounced, with females consistently exhibiting lower mortality across all populations. The Nigerian annuity-due analysis indicates significant sensitivity to both model choice and interest-rate assumptions, with gender differentials in annuity values ranging from 8 to 18%, depending on model selection and product duration. Across models, Weibull generally produces the highest annuity values, followed by Gompertz and then Makeham, offering practitioners a clear, bounded framework for sensitivity testing. Interest-rate variation further induces 40–60% changes in annuity pricing under typical West African economic conditions. This work contributes significantly to actuarial science by providing the comprehensive mortality modeling framework for West African populations and establishing evidence-based foundations for insurance and pension product development in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>

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Parametric mortality models for actuarial applications in West Africa: evidence from Nigeria, Ghana, and Benin (2000–2019)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月17日

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  • Olaronke Olufemi Oyelade,
  • Ashim Babatunde Sogunro,
  • Dallah Hamadu

摘要

This study examines the application of three parametric mortality models; Gompertz, Makeham, and Weibull to analyze mortality patterns and calculate annuity-due values for male and female populations in Nigeria, Ghana, and Benin. Using World Health Organization Global Health Observatory data from 2000 to 2019, mortality parameters were estimated through optimization techniques, and the fitted parameters were applied to comprehensive annuity-due calculations using Nigerian data as a representative case study. Results demonstrate that the Makeham model showed the best overall fit based on AIC/BIC and RMSE across adult ages and most reliable fit across all three countries, outperforming both the Gompertz and Weibull specifications. Its incorporation of an age-independent mortality component allows it to capture baseline risks more accurately, especially at younger ages. The Gompertz model performs moderately well, while the Weibull model shows adequate but comparatively weaker performance. Mortality patterns across Nigeria, Ghana, and Benin exhibit remarkable convergence over the 2000–2019 period, with previously large cross-country differentials narrowing substantially. Gender differences remain pronounced, with females consistently exhibiting lower mortality across all populations. The Nigerian annuity-due analysis indicates significant sensitivity to both model choice and interest-rate assumptions, with gender differentials in annuity values ranging from 8 to 18%, depending on model selection and product duration. Across models, Weibull generally produces the highest annuity values, followed by Gompertz and then Makeham, offering practitioners a clear, bounded framework for sensitivity testing. Interest-rate variation further induces 40–60% changes in annuity pricing under typical West African economic conditions. This work contributes significantly to actuarial science by providing the comprehensive mortality modeling framework for West African populations and establishing evidence-based foundations for insurance and pension product development in sub-Saharan Africa.