New brooms sweep cleaner? political term and air pollution governance
摘要
Political agency models predict that officials with higher continuation values of office exert greater effort when observable performance is tied to career rewards. We test this prediction in China’s top-down cadre system, where the 2012 leadership reshuffle following the 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress coincided with the elevation of PM2.5 reduction to an explicit cadre-evaluation criterion. Using data from Chinese prefecture-level cities between 2008 and 2015, we implement a difference-in-differences design comparing cities led by first-term and reappointed leaders. We find that post-2012, first-term leaders achieved larger PM2.5 reductions than reappointed leaders. This gap reflects first-term leaders’ longer career horizons and weaker pre-existing capture relationships with incumbent polluters. Consistent with multitask incentive theory, first-term leaders exert greater effort on measurable, fast-acting administrative instruments such as production restrictions, while green subsidies and technological innovation show no significant term-stage difference. The paper provides new evidence on political agency, regulatory capture, and multitask incentives in top-down bureaucratic systems.