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<p>Did the CIA’s secret Cold War interventions reshape the ideological landscape of target nations? We analyze US covert regime change operations from 1952 to 1989, combining as reported by O’Rourke (Covert regime change: America’s secret cold war, Cornell University Press Ithaca, New York, 2018) data with V-Dem measures of regime ideology. Using difference-in-differences estimators, we find successful interventions increased conservative ideology and reduced socialist rhetoric. Failed attempts show opposite but fragile effects. When pooling all interventions, these opposing effects largely cancel. We interpret these patterns through public choice theory: ideology served as a commitment device to signal alignment with superpowers and as a screening mechanism to homogenize ruling coalitions. Our findings illustrate the gap between the simplicity of interventions and the complexity of the systems they attempt to reshape.</p>

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Covert regime change and ideology

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • Joshua Ammons,
  • Shishir Shakya,
  • Konstantin Zhukov

摘要

Did the CIA’s secret Cold War interventions reshape the ideological landscape of target nations? We analyze US covert regime change operations from 1952 to 1989, combining as reported by O’Rourke (Covert regime change: America’s secret cold war, Cornell University Press Ithaca, New York, 2018) data with V-Dem measures of regime ideology. Using difference-in-differences estimators, we find successful interventions increased conservative ideology and reduced socialist rhetoric. Failed attempts show opposite but fragile effects. When pooling all interventions, these opposing effects largely cancel. We interpret these patterns through public choice theory: ideology served as a commitment device to signal alignment with superpowers and as a screening mechanism to homogenize ruling coalitions. Our findings illustrate the gap between the simplicity of interventions and the complexity of the systems they attempt to reshape.