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<p>Although existing research has connected sibling absence to unique economic and social outcomes among only children, its political consequences remain underexplored. Leveraging China’s One-Child Policy as a natural experiment, this study examines whether growing up without siblings weakens citizens’ willingness to engage in duty-based participation. Drawing on data from a nationally representative survey and employing a birthdate-based regression discontinuity design, we find that only children are substantially less likely to participate in local elections than their peers with siblings. Further analysis reveals that this turnout gap is mediated by higher levels of individualism, alongside weaker authoritarian beliefs and political interest. By establishing a “missing sibling” effect, we demonstrate a critical pathway from early family structure to adult political behavior and illuminate how demographic policies have profound and lasting consequences for civic life.</p>

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The “Missing Sibling” effect: how China’s one-child policy reshaped grassroots voting

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月22日

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  • Peijie Wang,
  • Youlang Zhang

摘要

Although existing research has connected sibling absence to unique economic and social outcomes among only children, its political consequences remain underexplored. Leveraging China’s One-Child Policy as a natural experiment, this study examines whether growing up without siblings weakens citizens’ willingness to engage in duty-based participation. Drawing on data from a nationally representative survey and employing a birthdate-based regression discontinuity design, we find that only children are substantially less likely to participate in local elections than their peers with siblings. Further analysis reveals that this turnout gap is mediated by higher levels of individualism, alongside weaker authoritarian beliefs and political interest. By establishing a “missing sibling” effect, we demonstrate a critical pathway from early family structure to adult political behavior and illuminate how demographic policies have profound and lasting consequences for civic life.