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<p>Using county-level voting data from the 2008 presidential election in New York State, we find evidence that durable cultural factors influence voting behavior. After controlling for contemporaneous socio-economic factors, our econometric models imply that antebellum votes—the 1860 vote for Lincoln and an 1846 referendum on black suffrage—have statistically significant predictive power for the 2008 vote for Barack Obama. Antebellum support for emancipation and the rights of blacks in New York emerged primarily in ‘Yankee’ counties founded by migrants from New England, the descendants of English Puritans. In contrast, so-called ‘Yorker’ counties founded by the Dutch or other groups were less amenable to reforms promoting racial equality. Our estimates indicate that differences in antebellum cultural factors predict an additional Obama vote of 2 − 4% points. This correlation of factors dated some 150 years apart suggests persistence of culture in voting behavior, and the consistency of moral expression in this voting behavior lends support to the ethical voter hypothesis.</p>

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Durable cultural values and ethical voting: evidence from the 2008 presidential election in New York State

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月6日

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  • Marc Poitras

摘要

Using county-level voting data from the 2008 presidential election in New York State, we find evidence that durable cultural factors influence voting behavior. After controlling for contemporaneous socio-economic factors, our econometric models imply that antebellum votes—the 1860 vote for Lincoln and an 1846 referendum on black suffrage—have statistically significant predictive power for the 2008 vote for Barack Obama. Antebellum support for emancipation and the rights of blacks in New York emerged primarily in ‘Yankee’ counties founded by migrants from New England, the descendants of English Puritans. In contrast, so-called ‘Yorker’ counties founded by the Dutch or other groups were less amenable to reforms promoting racial equality. Our estimates indicate that differences in antebellum cultural factors predict an additional Obama vote of 2 − 4% points. This correlation of factors dated some 150 years apart suggests persistence of culture in voting behavior, and the consistency of moral expression in this voting behavior lends support to the ethical voter hypothesis.