<p>This study investigates how the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war affected China’s strategic ‘Made in China 2025’ (MIC25) initiative, which seeks to establish China as a global leader in high-tech manufacturing exports. We employ a gravity model to evaluate the short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on China’s bilateral trade with the U.S. and other partners, and complement this with a partial-adjustment model to capture longer-run reallocation dynamics. To address endogeneity, we construct a novel instrumental variable—the product-level Trump Swing Index—that exploits the electoral incentives behind tariff imposition. Using monthly data on China’s MIC25 product exports to the U.S. and other 99 major importers from 2018 to 2019, we find that higher U.S. tariffs significantly reduced China’s MIC25 exports to the U.S. while simultaneously redirecting them toward third-country markets. In the short run, a doubling of U.S. tariffs reduced Chinese MIC25 exports to the U.S. by 12.7–14.4%, partially offset by a 1.2–1.4% increase to alternative destinations. In the longer run, the dynamic adjustment estimates imply that the average increase in U.S. tariffs during the trade war translated into a sustained contraction of about 2.4% points in China’s U.S. market share. Heterogeneous diversion patterns are evident across product categories and destinations, with stronger redirection toward Asia and the Americas (excluding the U.S.). These results highlight both the immediate and persistent effects of trade conflict on China’s strategic export sectors, underscoring China’s resilience through dynamic export reallocation and offering broader lessons for how emerging economies can mitigate geopolitical risks in an era of economic fragmentation.</p>