Output and Money Growth in the Euro Area
摘要
This paper re-examines the money-output relationship using a disaggregated dataset for twelve EA countries covering the period 2000-2024. The focus of the paper is on comparing aggregate and disaggregate models, to examine whether cross-country heterogeneity in money growth rates may weaken the aggregate relationship between money and output at the EA level. A further contribution is to try and explain the heterogeneity in money growth across the EA within a money demand framework. We employ two commonly used empirical approaches to model the money-output relationship. First, we estimate output effects by including money growth in a backward-looking specification of the IS curve. Second, we estimate VAR models and calculate the impulse response of output to innovations in money growth. We find that there is substantial heterogeneity in money growth rates across the EA and that this heterogeneity varies over time. Comparing aggregate and disaggregate models, we show that a disaggregated approach yields a more significant money-output relationship. Finally, we find that national developments in housing and bond markets are important factors in explaining the cross-country variation in money growth.