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<p>The atmospheric water cycle over China, governed by complex nonlinear interactions under global warming, is undergoing profound restructuring. However, a systematic diagnosis of the nonlinear interactions and feedback mechanisms among key variables remains lacking. This study reconstructs the spatiotemporal patterns of China’s atmospheric water cycle under anthropogenic-natural synergistic warming using ERA5 data (1940–2024). Our analysis reveals distinct characteristics in key hydrological components: precipitation exhibits dipole patterns and decadal oscillations; evaporation shows widespread intensification with regional declines; and total column water vapor (TCWV) displays a sustained increase with critical phase transitions around 1986 and 2000. Notably, TCWV emerges as the most direct thermodynamic signal of global warming, with its transitions coinciding with turning points in anthropogenic CO<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(_2\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mmultiscripts> <mrow /> <mn>2</mn> <mrow /> </mmultiscripts> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> emissions and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase shifts. The reorganization of China’s atmospheric water cycle is primarily driven by large-scale circulation adjustments, including the westward extension and intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, and enhanced westerly disturbances due to Arctic amplification. These circulation changes collectively reshape moisture transport pathways, creating the observed contrasting precipitation patterns. Furthermore, we identify regionally divergent feedback mechanisms among precipitation, evaporation, and TCWV: positive soil moisture-mediated feedback dominates in arid/semi-arid regions, while negative vapor pressure deficit-regulated feedback prevails in humid/semi-humid areas. These findings reveal that China’s atmospheric water cycle is becoming not only wetter in some regions and drier in others, but also fundamentally more complex and less predictable – a reality that climate-resilient water resource management must confront.</p>

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Complexity and nonlinearity in reconstructing China’s atmospheric water cycle patterns under co-evolving human and natural drivers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月6日

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  • Xinyue Bao,
  • Jiansen Li,
  • Xintong Zhu,
  • Xiang Li,
  • Xiguang Huang

摘要

The atmospheric water cycle over China, governed by complex nonlinear interactions under global warming, is undergoing profound restructuring. However, a systematic diagnosis of the nonlinear interactions and feedback mechanisms among key variables remains lacking. This study reconstructs the spatiotemporal patterns of China’s atmospheric water cycle under anthropogenic-natural synergistic warming using ERA5 data (1940–2024). Our analysis reveals distinct characteristics in key hydrological components: precipitation exhibits dipole patterns and decadal oscillations; evaporation shows widespread intensification with regional declines; and total column water vapor (TCWV) displays a sustained increase with critical phase transitions around 1986 and 2000. Notably, TCWV emerges as the most direct thermodynamic signal of global warming, with its transitions coinciding with turning points in anthropogenic CO \(_2\) 2 emissions and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase shifts. The reorganization of China’s atmospheric water cycle is primarily driven by large-scale circulation adjustments, including the westward extension and intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, and enhanced westerly disturbances due to Arctic amplification. These circulation changes collectively reshape moisture transport pathways, creating the observed contrasting precipitation patterns. Furthermore, we identify regionally divergent feedback mechanisms among precipitation, evaporation, and TCWV: positive soil moisture-mediated feedback dominates in arid/semi-arid regions, while negative vapor pressure deficit-regulated feedback prevails in humid/semi-humid areas. These findings reveal that China’s atmospheric water cycle is becoming not only wetter in some regions and drier in others, but also fundamentally more complex and less predictable – a reality that climate-resilient water resource management must confront.