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<p>Temperature plays a pivotal role in shaping ecological interactions, particularly predator–prey dynamics. This study develops and analyzes mathematical models where temperature affects both prey growth and predator attack rates through thermal performance functions. We consider two modeling frameworks: one where temperature is treated as model parameter, and another where it evolves dynamically based on energy balance equation incorporating prey-dependent planetary albedo. The first model accounting for temperature as parameter reveals distinct dynamical regimes–predator extinction, stable coexistence, and population cycles, depending on how environmental temperature aligns with species-specific thermal optima. Our analysis further shows that in temperature ranges where these optima align with ambient conditions, the system retains its qualitative behaviour, indicating that species may sustain interaction stability through thermal adaptation of growth and attack traits. The model accounting temperature as a dynamic variable introduces climate-ecosystem feedbacks, capturing the bi-directional interaction between species abundance and ambient temperature. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations demonstrate that predator populations are more sensitive to climate parameters than prey, with small perturbations in radiative or albedo-related parameters capable of destabilizing oscillations. Model validation using a real-world case study shows good agreement with observed seasonal population dynamics, supporting the ecological relevance of the proposed framework.</p>

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Thresholds and transitions in climate-coupled predator–prey models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月2日

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  • Adarsh Shrivastava,
  • Purnedu Mishra,
  • Joydip Dhar

摘要

Temperature plays a pivotal role in shaping ecological interactions, particularly predator–prey dynamics. This study develops and analyzes mathematical models where temperature affects both prey growth and predator attack rates through thermal performance functions. We consider two modeling frameworks: one where temperature is treated as model parameter, and another where it evolves dynamically based on energy balance equation incorporating prey-dependent planetary albedo. The first model accounting for temperature as parameter reveals distinct dynamical regimes–predator extinction, stable coexistence, and population cycles, depending on how environmental temperature aligns with species-specific thermal optima. Our analysis further shows that in temperature ranges where these optima align with ambient conditions, the system retains its qualitative behaviour, indicating that species may sustain interaction stability through thermal adaptation of growth and attack traits. The model accounting temperature as a dynamic variable introduces climate-ecosystem feedbacks, capturing the bi-directional interaction between species abundance and ambient temperature. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations demonstrate that predator populations are more sensitive to climate parameters than prey, with small perturbations in radiative or albedo-related parameters capable of destabilizing oscillations. Model validation using a real-world case study shows good agreement with observed seasonal population dynamics, supporting the ecological relevance of the proposed framework.