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<p>This study examines how Turing, Hopf, and mixed spatiotemporal instabilities affect population persistence in a predator–prey system under climatic fluctuations. Using a reaction-diffusion model, it shows that Turing instability creates spatially heterogeneous, steady state patterns that buffer against environmental shocks, enhancing resilience. In contrast, Hopf instability leads to spatial synchrony and coordinated oscillations in population abundance, increasing local and landscape-scale extinction risk via synchronized tipping. Mixed regimes display transient chaotic dynamics, with long-term outcomes depending on proximity to bifurcation thresholds. A key finding is the spatial extension of phase-induced tipping (P-tipping), where synchrony across space amplifies collapse during climate-induced phase vulnerability. Turing patterns, by supporting asynchronous dynamics, enable localized recovery and prevent landscape-scale extinction, even under non-autonomous parameter fluctuation. The results emphasize that extinction risk is shaped by the interaction between internal instability modes and spatial synchrony, not environmental forcing alone. These insights support strategies that promote spatial heterogeneity to improve spatial ecosystem resilience under climate change.</p>

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Turing-Hopf interactions and climate-mediated pattern formation and species extinction in spatial predator–prey systems

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月7日

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  • Sounov Marick,
  • Nandadulal Bairagi

摘要

This study examines how Turing, Hopf, and mixed spatiotemporal instabilities affect population persistence in a predator–prey system under climatic fluctuations. Using a reaction-diffusion model, it shows that Turing instability creates spatially heterogeneous, steady state patterns that buffer against environmental shocks, enhancing resilience. In contrast, Hopf instability leads to spatial synchrony and coordinated oscillations in population abundance, increasing local and landscape-scale extinction risk via synchronized tipping. Mixed regimes display transient chaotic dynamics, with long-term outcomes depending on proximity to bifurcation thresholds. A key finding is the spatial extension of phase-induced tipping (P-tipping), where synchrony across space amplifies collapse during climate-induced phase vulnerability. Turing patterns, by supporting asynchronous dynamics, enable localized recovery and prevent landscape-scale extinction, even under non-autonomous parameter fluctuation. The results emphasize that extinction risk is shaped by the interaction between internal instability modes and spatial synchrony, not environmental forcing alone. These insights support strategies that promote spatial heterogeneity to improve spatial ecosystem resilience under climate change.