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<p>This study presents a comprehensive experimental analysis of suborbital debris propagation under various uncertainty scenarios, focusing on the effects of kinematic perturbations and area-to-mass ratio diversity. The equations of motion, incorporating gravitational and aerodynamic forces, are analytically simplified to characterize the asymmetric expansion of debris clouds. A multi-dimensional sampling strategy based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model is adopted, and propagation experiments are conducted to quantify spatial dispersion and risk envelopes across both horizontal and vertical-longitudinal projections. The results reveal that initial velocity increments and variations in area-to-mass ratio significantly amplify the anisotropic spread of debris, leading to pronounced asymmetry in the hazard zone boundaries. Comparative evaluation demonstrates that the proposed estimation approach outperforms traditional filters in both accuracy and robustness. By integrating simulated debris distributions with aviation route data, the study further identifies high-risk areas and assesses the potential impact on air traffic operations. These findings provide scientific guidance for hazard zone prediction and airspace management in commercial aerospace applications.</p>

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Enhanced covariance propagation for asymmetric high-order uncertainty in reentry debris risk prediction

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月22日

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  • Wantong Chen,
  • Zerui Cao,
  • Shiyu Ren

摘要

This study presents a comprehensive experimental analysis of suborbital debris propagation under various uncertainty scenarios, focusing on the effects of kinematic perturbations and area-to-mass ratio diversity. The equations of motion, incorporating gravitational and aerodynamic forces, are analytically simplified to characterize the asymmetric expansion of debris clouds. A multi-dimensional sampling strategy based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model is adopted, and propagation experiments are conducted to quantify spatial dispersion and risk envelopes across both horizontal and vertical-longitudinal projections. The results reveal that initial velocity increments and variations in area-to-mass ratio significantly amplify the anisotropic spread of debris, leading to pronounced asymmetry in the hazard zone boundaries. Comparative evaluation demonstrates that the proposed estimation approach outperforms traditional filters in both accuracy and robustness. By integrating simulated debris distributions with aviation route data, the study further identifies high-risk areas and assesses the potential impact on air traffic operations. These findings provide scientific guidance for hazard zone prediction and airspace management in commercial aerospace applications.