Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease with awareness effects: a case study of guinea and sierra leone
摘要
This manuscript presents an epidemic model of Ebola virus disease that incorporates the influence of awareness. The study focuses on several important aspects of the model, including the establishment of positivity and boundedness of the solutions. The local stability analysis of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria is conducted. The occurrence of transcritical bifurcation is examined in relation to the reproduction number. The manuscript employs numerical simulations to further investigate the model’s dynamics. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of each parameter on infected individuals. Contour lines of population density are analyzed to understand the spatial distribution of the disease. The study emphasizes the crucial role of awareness in reducing the number of Ebola cases and potentially eradicating the virus from the system. To validate the model, reported cases of Ebola in Guinea and Sierra Leone are used for fitting. This validation process ensures that the model accurately captures the dynamics observed in the real-world epidemic data. Additionally, the manuscript delves into the stochastic nature of the proposed model. Through numerical investigations, the study reveals that low noise intensity leads to disease persistence and the emergence of a stationary distribution. Conversely, high noise intensity may result in the eradication of the disease from the system. Overall, this manuscript provides valuable insights into the dynamics of Ebola, highlighting the importance of awareness in mitigating the spread of the virus. The model’s validation, sensitivity analysis, and investigation of stochastic effects contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the epidemic dynamics and potential control strategies.