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<p>Drought represents one of the most significant climate hazards affecting pastoral livelihoods in semi-arid regions of East Africa. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought in Simanjiro District, northern Tanzania, using a multi-indicator remote sensing approach. Four drought indicators were analysed, including the Standardised Precipitation Index, the Soil Moisture Index, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Vegetation Health Index. To ensure temporal consistency across datasets, a composite Drought Severity Index (DSI) was calculated for the common period 2015–2024 using standardised indicators integrated into a unified framework. The performance of the index was evaluated using principal component analysis, sensitivity analysis, and comparison with independent drought evidence. Results reveal increasing drought severity in the district, with persistent drought hotspots concentrated in northern and western Simanjiro. Spatial analysis further indicates that areas experiencing severe drought frequently coincide with zones undergoing rapid land-use and land-cover change, including vegetation loss and agricultural expansion. Household survey data (<i>n</i> = 396) show that drought-related environmental changes are associated with livestock mortality, declining pasture availability, and increasing livelihood vulnerability among pastoral households. These findings highlight how climatic stress and environmental transformation interact to shape potential Loss and Damage in dryland pastoral systems. The study demonstrates the value of integrating remote sensing indicators with community-level evidence to strengthen drought monitoring and support risk-informed adaptation strategies in semi-arid regions.</p>

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Spatiotemporal drought assessment using remote sensing indicators and land-use change analysis: implications for loss and damage in pastoral communities of Simanjiro District, Tanzania

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月24日

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  • Upendo E. Lyimo,
  • Edmund B. Mabhuye,
  • Noah M. Pauline

摘要

Drought represents one of the most significant climate hazards affecting pastoral livelihoods in semi-arid regions of East Africa. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought in Simanjiro District, northern Tanzania, using a multi-indicator remote sensing approach. Four drought indicators were analysed, including the Standardised Precipitation Index, the Soil Moisture Index, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Vegetation Health Index. To ensure temporal consistency across datasets, a composite Drought Severity Index (DSI) was calculated for the common period 2015–2024 using standardised indicators integrated into a unified framework. The performance of the index was evaluated using principal component analysis, sensitivity analysis, and comparison with independent drought evidence. Results reveal increasing drought severity in the district, with persistent drought hotspots concentrated in northern and western Simanjiro. Spatial analysis further indicates that areas experiencing severe drought frequently coincide with zones undergoing rapid land-use and land-cover change, including vegetation loss and agricultural expansion. Household survey data (n = 396) show that drought-related environmental changes are associated with livestock mortality, declining pasture availability, and increasing livelihood vulnerability among pastoral households. These findings highlight how climatic stress and environmental transformation interact to shape potential Loss and Damage in dryland pastoral systems. The study demonstrates the value of integrating remote sensing indicators with community-level evidence to strengthen drought monitoring and support risk-informed adaptation strategies in semi-arid regions.