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<p>Floods are among the most damaging natural hazards in Mediterranean cities, where rapid urbanization and impervious surface expansion exacerbate hydrological stress. In this context, urban flood risk is increasingly shaped not only by hydrological extremes but also by the socio-spatial dynamics of densely populated and rapidly transforming neighborhoods. This study develops an integrated framework that combines multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) with local spatial statistical analysis to assess the multifactorial and spatially heterogeneous nature of flood risk in the Meles Stream Catchment (İzmir, Türkiye). Ten parameters representing hydrological and urban characteristics of the catchment were weighed through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and integrated using a GIS-based overlay approach. Cluster and Outlier Analysis and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics revealed significant clustering of flood susceptibility, with high-high hot spots concentrated in densely urbanized neighborhoods. These high-risk clusters coincide with areas historically affected by flood events, validating the model outputs and reinforcing its utility as a decision-support tool. Conversely, low–low clusters correspond to permeable land uses, reinforcing the role of natural and semi-natural buffers in mitigating runoff. The socio-spatial assessment highlights that densely populated areas are disproportionately exposed, amplifying human vulnerability and complicating emergency management. From a policy perspective, the findings underscore the need to prioritize interventions in high-density urban areas and to promote green infrastructure, sustainable drainage systems, and the conservation of semi-natural buffers. These insights are particularly relevant in the context of climate change, where more frequent and intense rainfall events are expected to exacerbate urban floods.</p>

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Integrating spatial statistical and decision-making approaches for flood risk assessment in a Mediterranean urban catchment

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Merve Özeren Alkan,
  • Diba Şenay

摘要

Floods are among the most damaging natural hazards in Mediterranean cities, where rapid urbanization and impervious surface expansion exacerbate hydrological stress. In this context, urban flood risk is increasingly shaped not only by hydrological extremes but also by the socio-spatial dynamics of densely populated and rapidly transforming neighborhoods. This study develops an integrated framework that combines multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) with local spatial statistical analysis to assess the multifactorial and spatially heterogeneous nature of flood risk in the Meles Stream Catchment (İzmir, Türkiye). Ten parameters representing hydrological and urban characteristics of the catchment were weighed through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and integrated using a GIS-based overlay approach. Cluster and Outlier Analysis and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics revealed significant clustering of flood susceptibility, with high-high hot spots concentrated in densely urbanized neighborhoods. These high-risk clusters coincide with areas historically affected by flood events, validating the model outputs and reinforcing its utility as a decision-support tool. Conversely, low–low clusters correspond to permeable land uses, reinforcing the role of natural and semi-natural buffers in mitigating runoff. The socio-spatial assessment highlights that densely populated areas are disproportionately exposed, amplifying human vulnerability and complicating emergency management. From a policy perspective, the findings underscore the need to prioritize interventions in high-density urban areas and to promote green infrastructure, sustainable drainage systems, and the conservation of semi-natural buffers. These insights are particularly relevant in the context of climate change, where more frequent and intense rainfall events are expected to exacerbate urban floods.