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<p>Extreme events are climatic anomalies, such as prolonged droughts or intense rainfall episodes, that deviate from long-term historical patterns and pose significant risks to natural and human systems. Understanding extreme events under climate change is crucial for anticipating future risks, guiding adaptation strategies, and safeguarding both people and ecosystems from growing climate-related threats. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on drought variability using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), evaluating key drought characteristics such as events, intensity, duration, frequency, and severity under SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the near (2025–2050), mid (2051–2075), and far (2076–2100) future periods, based on bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble data. Additionally, Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are developed using the pooling method to assess projected changes in extreme precipitation and associated flood risks. The assessment reveals strong spatial variability in monsoonal rainfall across Peninsular India, with drier conditions in basins like Pennar and Cauvery. Long-term trends show declining rainfall in most basins, increasing drought risk. SPI analysis indicates improved conditions of drought with high-emission scenarios. Historically, drought events were highest in Cauvery and Subarnarekha. Drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity decline under high-emission futures. IDF curves show stable flood risk under SSP1-2.6, but sharp increases in short-duration rainfall under SSP3 and SSP5 highlight growing flood threats. These findings highlight the critical need for emission mitigation and basin-specific adaptation strategies to reduce the risks of future droughts and floods under a changing climate.</p>

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Impact of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes across major river basins of Peninsular India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Anisha Das,
  • Pankaj Kumar,
  • Jatin Anand,
  • A. Sharma,
  • S. N. Sahoo

摘要

Extreme events are climatic anomalies, such as prolonged droughts or intense rainfall episodes, that deviate from long-term historical patterns and pose significant risks to natural and human systems. Understanding extreme events under climate change is crucial for anticipating future risks, guiding adaptation strategies, and safeguarding both people and ecosystems from growing climate-related threats. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on drought variability using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), evaluating key drought characteristics such as events, intensity, duration, frequency, and severity under SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the near (2025–2050), mid (2051–2075), and far (2076–2100) future periods, based on bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble data. Additionally, Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are developed using the pooling method to assess projected changes in extreme precipitation and associated flood risks. The assessment reveals strong spatial variability in monsoonal rainfall across Peninsular India, with drier conditions in basins like Pennar and Cauvery. Long-term trends show declining rainfall in most basins, increasing drought risk. SPI analysis indicates improved conditions of drought with high-emission scenarios. Historically, drought events were highest in Cauvery and Subarnarekha. Drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity decline under high-emission futures. IDF curves show stable flood risk under SSP1-2.6, but sharp increases in short-duration rainfall under SSP3 and SSP5 highlight growing flood threats. These findings highlight the critical need for emission mitigation and basin-specific adaptation strategies to reduce the risks of future droughts and floods under a changing climate.