Tsunamis in the Laptev Sea caused by earthquakes: assessing worst-case scenarios
摘要
Tsunami hazard assessment in the Laptev Sea is the purpose of this study. For the coast of the Laptev Sea, the main danger from tsunamis of seismic origin is posed by earthquakes occurring in the zone of the Gakkel Ridge. The analysis of seismotectonic conditions and seismic activity in the region allow to identify the primary zones of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes. The deterministic tsunami hazard assessment in this study is based on the modelling of tsunamis from 390 potential tsunamigenic earthquakes. Only the worst-case scenarios were considered, with the maximum possible magnitude in this region (Mw 7.7). Tsunami generated near the continental slope, due to the dissipation of energy on the broad shelf of the Laptev Sea, significantly weaken upon reaching the southeastern seacoast. The simulations showed that earthquakes with epicenters located north of 80° N and oriented submeridionally can cause significant tsunamis. The simulated tsunami heights along the coast of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago varied from 2 to 8 m. In some gulfs and bays of these islands, local amplification may be observed, with a maximum height up to 10 m.