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<p>Atacames, located on the northern coast of Ecuador, lies within the Nazca–South American subduction margin and is highly exposed to near-field tsunamis, yet detailed local-scale risk assessments remain limited. This study develops an integrated and spatially explicit framework for tsunami risk assessment by combining a multi-century historical catalogue (1586–2019), synthetic seismic scenarios, hydrodynamic modelling, and geospatial multi-criteria analysis. A total of 27 tsunami scenarios (18 synthetic and 9 historical) were simulated using COMCOT, MOST (via ComMIT), and Tsunami Travel Time (TTT) models. The resulting hazard parameters—wave amplitude, inundation depth, and arrival time—were integrated with a GIS-based vulnerability model at 10&#xa0;m spatial resolution, incorporating socio-economic fragility (poverty, vulnerable age groups, and disability) and physical accessibility constraints for evacuation. The worst-case synthetic scenario (Mw 8.8 earthquake located ~ 105&#xa0;km offshore) produced run-up values up to 10.5&#xa0;m, with first-wave arrival times between 23 and 34&#xa0;min, and an inundation extent of approximately 29.9 km<sup>2</sup>, affecting about 27,500 inhabitants (66% of the population). The integration of hazard and vulnerability revealed that approximately 19.6 km<sup>2</sup> (65% of the flooded area) fall within high to very high disaster risk levels, particularly in the low-lying coastal zones of Atacames, Tonsupa, and Súa, and in aquaculture areas, where limited accessibility constrains evacuation capacity. In addition, optimal evacuation routes were derived using network analysis and implemented in an interactive ArcGIS Online application, providing operational tools for risk communication, preparedness, and decision-making. The results demonstrate that tsunami risk is not solely determined by inundation extent but by the interaction between hazard intensity, socio-economic vulnerability, and evacuation constraints. The proposed framework advances beyond hazard-centred approaches by integrating physical and social dimensions of risk and is transferable to other data-scarce coastal regions along the Pacific subduction margin.</p>

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Integrated tsunami risk mapping and evacuation-route planning for Atacames, Ecuador: a multi-century catalogue, hydrodynamic modelling and GIS-based vulnerability approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月15日

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  • Edgar Parra,
  • Alejandra Geraldi,
  • Walter Melo,
  • Cesar Ivan Alvarez

摘要

Atacames, located on the northern coast of Ecuador, lies within the Nazca–South American subduction margin and is highly exposed to near-field tsunamis, yet detailed local-scale risk assessments remain limited. This study develops an integrated and spatially explicit framework for tsunami risk assessment by combining a multi-century historical catalogue (1586–2019), synthetic seismic scenarios, hydrodynamic modelling, and geospatial multi-criteria analysis. A total of 27 tsunami scenarios (18 synthetic and 9 historical) were simulated using COMCOT, MOST (via ComMIT), and Tsunami Travel Time (TTT) models. The resulting hazard parameters—wave amplitude, inundation depth, and arrival time—were integrated with a GIS-based vulnerability model at 10 m spatial resolution, incorporating socio-economic fragility (poverty, vulnerable age groups, and disability) and physical accessibility constraints for evacuation. The worst-case synthetic scenario (Mw 8.8 earthquake located ~ 105 km offshore) produced run-up values up to 10.5 m, with first-wave arrival times between 23 and 34 min, and an inundation extent of approximately 29.9 km2, affecting about 27,500 inhabitants (66% of the population). The integration of hazard and vulnerability revealed that approximately 19.6 km2 (65% of the flooded area) fall within high to very high disaster risk levels, particularly in the low-lying coastal zones of Atacames, Tonsupa, and Súa, and in aquaculture areas, where limited accessibility constrains evacuation capacity. In addition, optimal evacuation routes were derived using network analysis and implemented in an interactive ArcGIS Online application, providing operational tools for risk communication, preparedness, and decision-making. The results demonstrate that tsunami risk is not solely determined by inundation extent but by the interaction between hazard intensity, socio-economic vulnerability, and evacuation constraints. The proposed framework advances beyond hazard-centred approaches by integrating physical and social dimensions of risk and is transferable to other data-scarce coastal regions along the Pacific subduction margin.