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<p>Brazil, with its vast expanse of biomes including the Amazon and Cerrado, faces increasing challenges related to the rising number of wildfires, which may be exacerbated by climate change. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on wildfire risk across the entire national territory, covering a total area of 8,510,000 km<sup>2</sup>. Employing geoprocessing and climate modeling methodologies, we integrated vegetation, land use, climate, and topographic data to estimate wildfire risk. Climate projections were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, which describe different global development futures and their associated environmental impacts. Historical and future data were collected through the MAPBIOMAS and WorldClim platforms. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, Brazil's average temperature could increase to up to 31.16 ± 2.9&#xa0;°C and the average water deficit could reach 475.84 ± 263.79&#xa0;mm by the end of the century, creating favorable conditions for fire spread. Notable increases in wildfire risk were observed in Pantanal and Amazonian areas, where extreme risk could encompass up to 60.72% of the total biome area. Integrating sustainable agricultural practices and effective land use management emerge as crucial strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on wildfire incidence.</p>

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Escalating wildfire risks in Brazilian biomes under climate change scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Guilherme Botega Torsoni,
  • Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido,
  • João Antonio Lorençone,
  • Pedro Antonio Lorençone,
  • Glauco de Souza Rolim,
  • Eliane da Silva Leandro

摘要

Brazil, with its vast expanse of biomes including the Amazon and Cerrado, faces increasing challenges related to the rising number of wildfires, which may be exacerbated by climate change. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on wildfire risk across the entire national territory, covering a total area of 8,510,000 km2. Employing geoprocessing and climate modeling methodologies, we integrated vegetation, land use, climate, and topographic data to estimate wildfire risk. Climate projections were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, which describe different global development futures and their associated environmental impacts. Historical and future data were collected through the MAPBIOMAS and WorldClim platforms. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, Brazil's average temperature could increase to up to 31.16 ± 2.9 °C and the average water deficit could reach 475.84 ± 263.79 mm by the end of the century, creating favorable conditions for fire spread. Notable increases in wildfire risk were observed in Pantanal and Amazonian areas, where extreme risk could encompass up to 60.72% of the total biome area. Integrating sustainable agricultural practices and effective land use management emerge as crucial strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on wildfire incidence.