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<p>This study examines precipitation changes in Northeast China during 1985–2020, with particular emphasis on trend reversals, spatial pattern shifts, and precipitation characteristics. Piecewise regression and resampling tests identify a robust regime shift, transitioning from significant drying (1985–2000) to wetting (2001–2020). Monthly analyses reveal a redistribution of precipitation, characterized by declining mid-summer precipitation and increasing contributions from May and late summer. Empirical orthogonal function analysis confirms a reorganization of spatial variability, suggesting regions like the Lesser Khingan Range are now highly responsive to precipitation fluctuation. Pre-2000 precipitation reductions were concentrated in the plains, coinciding with decreased frequency. In contrast, the post-2000 wetting is characterized by increases in precipitation frequency and event intensity, supported by significant rises in moderate, heavy, and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in mountainous regions. Atmospheric analyses suggest that the transition is linked to anomalous monsoon dynamics and a strengthened influence of large-scale climate drivers, particularly the Pacific–North American pattern, which shows an increased statistical association after 2000. These evolving patterns potentially elevate flood and landslide risks in vulnerable mountainous terrain, highlighting the need for updated hazard mitigation and water resource strategies in Northeast China.</p>

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Shifts in precipitation and associated large-scale climate patterns in Northeast China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月6日

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  • Xinyan Li,
  • Shengpin Yu,
  • Zuohui Cai,
  • Hao Wu,
  • Yao Chen

摘要

This study examines precipitation changes in Northeast China during 1985–2020, with particular emphasis on trend reversals, spatial pattern shifts, and precipitation characteristics. Piecewise regression and resampling tests identify a robust regime shift, transitioning from significant drying (1985–2000) to wetting (2001–2020). Monthly analyses reveal a redistribution of precipitation, characterized by declining mid-summer precipitation and increasing contributions from May and late summer. Empirical orthogonal function analysis confirms a reorganization of spatial variability, suggesting regions like the Lesser Khingan Range are now highly responsive to precipitation fluctuation. Pre-2000 precipitation reductions were concentrated in the plains, coinciding with decreased frequency. In contrast, the post-2000 wetting is characterized by increases in precipitation frequency and event intensity, supported by significant rises in moderate, heavy, and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in mountainous regions. Atmospheric analyses suggest that the transition is linked to anomalous monsoon dynamics and a strengthened influence of large-scale climate drivers, particularly the Pacific–North American pattern, which shows an increased statistical association after 2000. These evolving patterns potentially elevate flood and landslide risks in vulnerable mountainous terrain, highlighting the need for updated hazard mitigation and water resource strategies in Northeast China.