Climatology of hailstorms over India (1994–2023): exploring trends and associations with thermodynamic indices
摘要
This study presents a climatological analysis of hailstorms over India, with a focus on Maharashtra, which recorded the highest number of hail events during the 30-year period from 1994 to 2023. A total of 996 hailstorms were reported across India, with the pre-monsoon season being the most active (637 events), followed by the winter season (214 events), together accounting for 85.6% of all hail occurrences. Maharashtra experienced 178 hailstorms, primarily in the pre-monsoon season, which showed the most frequent and intense activity. Districts such as Nagpur, Amravati, Akola, and Wardha experienced the highest number of events (15–39). The study uses ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5), sounding observations, and Disastrous Weather Events reports from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Thermodynamic indices such as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), K Index (KI), and Total Totals Index (TTI) were analysed using a threshold-based approach to understand their spatial distribution and role in defining the convective environment favourable to hailstorm activity. CAPE was found to be the consistent and reliable index in association with hail occurrences. Although western Maharashtra exhibited higher CAPE values, actual hail events were concentrated in the east. Correlation analysis of ten instability indices at Nagpur and Mumbai showed consistency among moisture-based and composite indices at both 00 UTC and 12 UTC. ERA5 data showed good agreement with sounding data over Nagpur, Pune, and Aurangabad, highlighting its reliability in regions with sparse observational coverage.