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<p>Given Madagascar’s high exposure to cyclones accentuated by its multidimensional vulnerability, it is critical to implement a robust cyclone risk reduction policy. This paper proposes a regional-scale risk index known as the Hurricane Risk Index for Madagascar (HRI-M) to assess cyclone risk at the regional level and the origin of this risk. To build HRI-M, we use the multi-layer benefit-of-doubt (MLBOD) approach, which is an extension of the benefit-of-doubt (BOD) model based on a non-parametric data envelopment analysis technique. The BOD method is an endogenous weighting system used to determine the relative cyclone risk level of each region in Madagascar compared with the other regions. In addition, the MLBOD approach enables us to take into account the hierarchical structure of employed risk indicators. Based on the existing literature, the HRI-M includes three key risk components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The data optimization procedure for Madagascar’s 22 regions revealed a cyclone risk index ranging from 1 (Sofia, Atsimo-Andrefana and Melaky) to 0.378 (Itasy). The hazard (38.74%) and vulnerability (36.30%) components make approximately the same contribution to the final score followed slightly by exposure (24.96%). However, a deeper analysis at each dimension highlights differentiated risk profiles, emphasizing the heterogeneity of risk origins across regions. This underscores the importance of implementing differentiated public policy responses, tailored to the specific risk profile of each region.</p>

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Assessment of cyclone risk in madagascar: multi-layer benefit-of-doubt approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月5日

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  • Tsiory Ramilimanitra,
  • Sabine Garabedian

摘要

Given Madagascar’s high exposure to cyclones accentuated by its multidimensional vulnerability, it is critical to implement a robust cyclone risk reduction policy. This paper proposes a regional-scale risk index known as the Hurricane Risk Index for Madagascar (HRI-M) to assess cyclone risk at the regional level and the origin of this risk. To build HRI-M, we use the multi-layer benefit-of-doubt (MLBOD) approach, which is an extension of the benefit-of-doubt (BOD) model based on a non-parametric data envelopment analysis technique. The BOD method is an endogenous weighting system used to determine the relative cyclone risk level of each region in Madagascar compared with the other regions. In addition, the MLBOD approach enables us to take into account the hierarchical structure of employed risk indicators. Based on the existing literature, the HRI-M includes three key risk components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The data optimization procedure for Madagascar’s 22 regions revealed a cyclone risk index ranging from 1 (Sofia, Atsimo-Andrefana and Melaky) to 0.378 (Itasy). The hazard (38.74%) and vulnerability (36.30%) components make approximately the same contribution to the final score followed slightly by exposure (24.96%). However, a deeper analysis at each dimension highlights differentiated risk profiles, emphasizing the heterogeneity of risk origins across regions. This underscores the importance of implementing differentiated public policy responses, tailored to the specific risk profile of each region.