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<p>With the rapid development of urban expansion, as well as the frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as extreme rainfall, flooding disasters at substations are becoming severe. Such flooding events can interrupt the power supply of residents and effect large areas. However, existing flood risk assessment methods often lack the capability to provide facility-specific vulnerability analysis for critical infrastructure such as substations. This limitation hinders the development of targeted and cost-effective flood resilience strategies for power systems. To address this gap, this study presents a methodological framework for assessing the flood risk of substations based on the risk matrix coupled with a hydrodynamic model in the Dashi River Basin. Two factors of the risk matrix are considered to determine the flooding risk level. One factor is the possibility of flood risk, and the other factor is the severity of the consequences of substation inundation. The hydrodynamic model is used to quantify the possibility of the flood risk, which is validated using the inundation process during the 23·7 catastrophic flood event. The results show high accuracy, with most of the simulated water depth errors being within 0.2 m. Additionally, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to analyze the severity of the inundation consequences. Moreover, we identify four flood risk levels: general, high, higher, and particularly significant. For demonstration, the proposed framework is applied to 12 substations in the Dashi River Basin. The findings indicate that nearly half of the substations in the Dashi River Basin are at risk of flooding, with seven, three, and two substations categorized as having general, high, and particularly significant risk levels, respectively. The results provide power grid managers with an actionable "Flood Mitigation Priority Action List," enabling targeted investments in structural reinforcements for high-risk facilities and management improvements for moderate-risk sites, thereby enhancing the resilience of power systems to flood disasters. Moreover, the quantitative and semi-quantitative combined framework developed in this study is feasible.</p>

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Flood risk assessment at electrical substations using a risk matrix coupled with a hydrodynamic model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Wanfang Xiao,
  • Lei Shi,
  • Xiaohua Ren,
  • Wenbin Zang,
  • Xiaoli Hao,
  • Hongping Zhang

摘要

With the rapid development of urban expansion, as well as the frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as extreme rainfall, flooding disasters at substations are becoming severe. Such flooding events can interrupt the power supply of residents and effect large areas. However, existing flood risk assessment methods often lack the capability to provide facility-specific vulnerability analysis for critical infrastructure such as substations. This limitation hinders the development of targeted and cost-effective flood resilience strategies for power systems. To address this gap, this study presents a methodological framework for assessing the flood risk of substations based on the risk matrix coupled with a hydrodynamic model in the Dashi River Basin. Two factors of the risk matrix are considered to determine the flooding risk level. One factor is the possibility of flood risk, and the other factor is the severity of the consequences of substation inundation. The hydrodynamic model is used to quantify the possibility of the flood risk, which is validated using the inundation process during the 23·7 catastrophic flood event. The results show high accuracy, with most of the simulated water depth errors being within 0.2 m. Additionally, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to analyze the severity of the inundation consequences. Moreover, we identify four flood risk levels: general, high, higher, and particularly significant. For demonstration, the proposed framework is applied to 12 substations in the Dashi River Basin. The findings indicate that nearly half of the substations in the Dashi River Basin are at risk of flooding, with seven, three, and two substations categorized as having general, high, and particularly significant risk levels, respectively. The results provide power grid managers with an actionable "Flood Mitigation Priority Action List," enabling targeted investments in structural reinforcements for high-risk facilities and management improvements for moderate-risk sites, thereby enhancing the resilience of power systems to flood disasters. Moreover, the quantitative and semi-quantitative combined framework developed in this study is feasible.