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<p>This study aims to understand the influence of atmospheric conditions and large-scale coupled ocean-atmospheric interactions conducive to the spread of forest fires across the diverse Indian forested region. The Indian mainland was divided into six major zones as per the Köppen’s classification of climatic zones. A combination of atmospheric reanalysis data and in-situ observations are used to understand the spread of fires over the Indian region. The analysis suggested that monsoon precipitation during the preceding year has less impact on wildfire events in the succeeding year, while pre-fire/antecedent precipitation has a substantial effect on the spread of fires. A combination of temperature and wind speed governs the drying of fuels and the subsequent fires that occur in mountainous regions. Vapor pressure deficit shows a peak value of &gt; 2&#xa0;kPa during the pre-fire to fire season. It remains actively high until the onset of the southwest monsoon, creating favourable conditions for the spread of fires, with the existence of another peak observed during the post-monsoon period, which possibly explains the occurrence of winter wildfires. We argue that pre-fire season precipitation, temperature, and wind speed, influenced by ENSO, IOD, and western disturbances, play a crucial role in governing atmospheric parameters that enhance the spread of fires. This study may be used to improve the existing fire danger rating system and to generate alerts from extended range to sub seasonal predictions for fire-induced disaster mitigation.</p>

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Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian ocean dipole on wildfire across the Indian forests

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Anandu Prabhakaran,
  • Piyush Srivastava

摘要

This study aims to understand the influence of atmospheric conditions and large-scale coupled ocean-atmospheric interactions conducive to the spread of forest fires across the diverse Indian forested region. The Indian mainland was divided into six major zones as per the Köppen’s classification of climatic zones. A combination of atmospheric reanalysis data and in-situ observations are used to understand the spread of fires over the Indian region. The analysis suggested that monsoon precipitation during the preceding year has less impact on wildfire events in the succeeding year, while pre-fire/antecedent precipitation has a substantial effect on the spread of fires. A combination of temperature and wind speed governs the drying of fuels and the subsequent fires that occur in mountainous regions. Vapor pressure deficit shows a peak value of > 2 kPa during the pre-fire to fire season. It remains actively high until the onset of the southwest monsoon, creating favourable conditions for the spread of fires, with the existence of another peak observed during the post-monsoon period, which possibly explains the occurrence of winter wildfires. We argue that pre-fire season precipitation, temperature, and wind speed, influenced by ENSO, IOD, and western disturbances, play a crucial role in governing atmospheric parameters that enhance the spread of fires. This study may be used to improve the existing fire danger rating system and to generate alerts from extended range to sub seasonal predictions for fire-induced disaster mitigation.