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<p>Following a large earthquake, the sparsely instrumented Southwest Pacific fails to consistently meet the UNESCO-IOC targets for operational tsunami forecasting. We present a method to improve regional distance tsunami early warning for such sparsely instrumented regions to meet 10-minute and 45-minute operational targets by utilizing novel application of seismic array processing and a hybrid approach combining array methods, W-phase inversion, and tsunami wave analysis. Our approach implements a procedure to directly delineate earthquake rupture extent in near-real time, bypassing conventional magnitude-to-rupture scaling and enabling high-resolution source estimation. We have tested these new ideas on the 19 May 2023 Loyalty Islands earthquake (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(M_w\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> 7.7) using data from a broadband seismic monitoring array in New Zealand. The estimated seismic source correlates well with post-event finite-fault inversion, and simulated tsunami signals match deep-ocean and coastal tide-gauge observations. Notably, synthetic tsunami waveforms show over 70% coherence with observed coastal tsunami signals at key coastal sites. A simulated real-time application of these methods, compared to existing early warning systems, demonstrates that integrating array processing significantly enhances forecast accuracy and timeliness and can effectively be used to achieve forecasting targets.</p>

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Improving regional tsunami early warning with seismic array techniques

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Amin A. Naeini,
  • Bill Fry,
  • Jennifer D. Eccles,
  • Kasper van Wijk

摘要

Following a large earthquake, the sparsely instrumented Southwest Pacific fails to consistently meet the UNESCO-IOC targets for operational tsunami forecasting. We present a method to improve regional distance tsunami early warning for such sparsely instrumented regions to meet 10-minute and 45-minute operational targets by utilizing novel application of seismic array processing and a hybrid approach combining array methods, W-phase inversion, and tsunami wave analysis. Our approach implements a procedure to directly delineate earthquake rupture extent in near-real time, bypassing conventional magnitude-to-rupture scaling and enabling high-resolution source estimation. We have tested these new ideas on the 19 May 2023 Loyalty Islands earthquake ( \(M_w\) 7.7) using data from a broadband seismic monitoring array in New Zealand. The estimated seismic source correlates well with post-event finite-fault inversion, and simulated tsunami signals match deep-ocean and coastal tide-gauge observations. Notably, synthetic tsunami waveforms show over 70% coherence with observed coastal tsunami signals at key coastal sites. A simulated real-time application of these methods, compared to existing early warning systems, demonstrates that integrating array processing significantly enhances forecast accuracy and timeliness and can effectively be used to achieve forecasting targets.