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<p>The triggers of most past glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) remain largely unknown, making this study crucial for glaciologists, policymakers, and stakeholders to better understand the key factors driving GLOFs, particularly extreme climatic events and earthquakes. This research assesses the spatiotemporal correlations between past GLOFs and climate extremes or seismic activity since 1972. The analysis identifies prolonged intense rainfall (exceeding 5–10&#xa0;days of average precipitation) as a critical precursor, while seismic events show varying degrees of correlation, notably in cases such as Dig Tsho (1985, 2015) and Tama Pokhari (1998). The study also highlights the Himalayan region's geological vulnerabilities, including rapid deglaciation, steep topography, and tectonic instability, which exacerbate GLOF risks. Case studies reveal that cloudbursts played a significant role at Chorabari Lake (2013), while surging glaciers and precipitation-driven lake destabilization were key triggers in Kyagar Lake (1997) and Yindapu Co (1982), respectively. Additionally, this study identifies the Ranzeria Co GLOF—previously unrecognized—as being triggered by intense rainfall. The research also examines the impacts of major earthquakes, including the Gorkha earthquake in 2015, which triggered landslides, avalanches, and GLOFs, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and local communities. Findings indicate that moraine and ice-dammed lakes are particularly vulnerable to outburst events, often initiated by ice avalanches, rockfalls, or piping phenomena, with post-earthquake effects further amplifying the hazards. Besides, the temperature rise has been noticed in this study since 1950 for the whole Himalayan region. However, the GLOF is more related to glacier dynamics, local topography, and extreme rainfall than the temperature rise, which was verified from the Cross Correlation Function analysis (CCF).</p>

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Revisiting the triggers of all GLOF events since 1950 in the Himalaya

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Litan Kumar Mohanty,
  • Anil Tiwari,
  • Amit Kumar,
  • Vivek Singh,
  • Ankur Dixit

摘要

The triggers of most past glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) remain largely unknown, making this study crucial for glaciologists, policymakers, and stakeholders to better understand the key factors driving GLOFs, particularly extreme climatic events and earthquakes. This research assesses the spatiotemporal correlations between past GLOFs and climate extremes or seismic activity since 1972. The analysis identifies prolonged intense rainfall (exceeding 5–10 days of average precipitation) as a critical precursor, while seismic events show varying degrees of correlation, notably in cases such as Dig Tsho (1985, 2015) and Tama Pokhari (1998). The study also highlights the Himalayan region's geological vulnerabilities, including rapid deglaciation, steep topography, and tectonic instability, which exacerbate GLOF risks. Case studies reveal that cloudbursts played a significant role at Chorabari Lake (2013), while surging glaciers and precipitation-driven lake destabilization were key triggers in Kyagar Lake (1997) and Yindapu Co (1982), respectively. Additionally, this study identifies the Ranzeria Co GLOF—previously unrecognized—as being triggered by intense rainfall. The research also examines the impacts of major earthquakes, including the Gorkha earthquake in 2015, which triggered landslides, avalanches, and GLOFs, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and local communities. Findings indicate that moraine and ice-dammed lakes are particularly vulnerable to outburst events, often initiated by ice avalanches, rockfalls, or piping phenomena, with post-earthquake effects further amplifying the hazards. Besides, the temperature rise has been noticed in this study since 1950 for the whole Himalayan region. However, the GLOF is more related to glacier dynamics, local topography, and extreme rainfall than the temperature rise, which was verified from the Cross Correlation Function analysis (CCF).