The rising threat of lightning in india: mortality and diurnal patterns (2002–2022)
摘要
India’s tropical latitude and diverse geography heighten its vulnerability to natural disasters, with extreme weather events (EWEs) posing significant challenges exacerbated by climate change. This study examines mortality trends in India from nine weather related hazards defined by National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) which includes lightning, floods, cyclone, heatwaves, landslides, avalanche, tsunami, earth quake and forest fire from 2002 to 2022. Among these hazards, lightning stands out as the leading cause of deaths, accounting for 50,358 fatalities (46%) of total deaths (109,738) for the period 2002–2022. The analysis reveals an increase in lightning occurrences and fluctuating fatality trends, highlighting the severe and frequent nature of lightning strikes. Diurnal variations indicate peak times for fatalities, emphasizing the need for awareness and preventive measures to mitigate life loss. It was found that the number of lightning-related deaths is higher in states like Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest number of lightning-related fatalities, totalling 7919 (16%) deaths, followed by Odisha with 6012 (12%) reported deaths and Maharashtra with 5569 (11%) fatalities. The study explores factors contributing to high lightning fatalities in India by analysing the frequency of lightning occurrences and their correlation with deaths. The study derives its conclusions from a comprehensive and empirically validated national mortality database encompassing disaster-related deaths across diverse regions. The evidence-based insights presented carry substantial policy relevance and warrant high prioritization to informed strategic decisions aimed at enhancing national climate resilience and specifically lightning disaster risk reduction.