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<p>Scenarios are commonly used in disaster resilience practice, particularly for geologic hazards. We investigated the effectiveness of scenarios for pre-disaster risk mitigation, through semi-structured interviews of 172 scenario users and developers across Ecuador, Nepal, New Zealand and California, and a review of research and practice literature. We present a cross-national comparison to identify variation in factors that shape the effectiveness of scenarios in different contexts. Scenarios were considered useful and credible by respondents at all sites, and had high Net Promoter Scores. Respondents linked scenarios to a number of mitigation measures, particularly in Nepal and California. Critical elements of scenarios effective for mitigation that were identified by interviewees included descriptions of impacts; identification of actions to reduce losses; robust, collaborative development processes; technical credibility; realistic depictions and plausible events; clear communication with audience-appropriate methods and channels; consideration of sociocultural and economic conditions; support from the external environment (political or media); and also, such scenarios should lead to action planning. We synthesized these findings with input from workshops and practitioner consultations to prepare separately-published practice guidance for scenario developers.</p>

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Using scenarios of geologic hazard events for pre-disaster mitigation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月23日

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  • Janise Rodgers,
  • Nnenia Campbell,
  • Sue Ann Sarpy,
  • Heidi Stenner,
  • Yajaira Ayala,
  • Julie Jomo,
  • Upama Ojha,
  • Delka Espinal,
  • Arrietta Chakos,
  • Hari Kumar,
  • Mery Paulina Ortiz Navas,
  • Lalrinpuii Tlau,
  • Yeshey Lotay,
  • Veronica Cedillos,
  • Dinesh Joshi,
  • Garmalia Mentor‐William,
  • Gefthé Dévilmé

摘要

Scenarios are commonly used in disaster resilience practice, particularly for geologic hazards. We investigated the effectiveness of scenarios for pre-disaster risk mitigation, through semi-structured interviews of 172 scenario users and developers across Ecuador, Nepal, New Zealand and California, and a review of research and practice literature. We present a cross-national comparison to identify variation in factors that shape the effectiveness of scenarios in different contexts. Scenarios were considered useful and credible by respondents at all sites, and had high Net Promoter Scores. Respondents linked scenarios to a number of mitigation measures, particularly in Nepal and California. Critical elements of scenarios effective for mitigation that were identified by interviewees included descriptions of impacts; identification of actions to reduce losses; robust, collaborative development processes; technical credibility; realistic depictions and plausible events; clear communication with audience-appropriate methods and channels; consideration of sociocultural and economic conditions; support from the external environment (political or media); and also, such scenarios should lead to action planning. We synthesized these findings with input from workshops and practitioner consultations to prepare separately-published practice guidance for scenario developers.