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<p>This study addresses the challenges associated with a singular time scale and the insufficient subjective willingness of social groups in assessing typhoon disaster risk. To this end, a multi-timescale risk model has been developed, incorporating a utility function based on typhoon data from Guangdong Province spanning the years 2000–2019. Initially, an annual-seasonal dual-scale probability model is established using the Poisson-Pearson-III composite extreme value distribution to examine seasonal variations in typhoon intensity. Subsequently, a dynamic vulnerability curve is created by integrating the normal information diffusion technique, which quantifies the nonlinear characteristics of agricultural exposure during the autumn under low wind speeds, as well as the cascading losses experienced by urban areas in the summer under high wind speeds. Finally, a logarithmic utility function is introduced to illustrate the propensity of social groups towards extreme hazard sensitivity. The findings reveal that the seasonal-scale model indicates a 50.96% higher loss rate from individual typhoons in the summer compared to the autumn (Table&#xa0;6), with the expected annual loss being 1.93 times greater than the cumulative losses from summer and autumn (Table&#xa0;6). This suggests a systematic overestimation inherent in traditional annual-scale assessments. The utility function demonstrates alignment with the expected losses estimated by traditional models at low wind speeds (≤ Force 11) while a significant risk avoidance tendency among social groups is observed at high wind speeds (≥ Force 14), effectively compensating for the traditional model's insensitivity to high loss-low probability events. This research substantiates the advantages of the seasonal scale discretized risk model in dynamically representing the temporal variations and seasonal characteristics of typhoon risk. Furthermore, the incorporation of the utility function enhances the reliability of typhoon risk assessments and has significant implications for typhoon damage mitigation decision-making processes. Consequently, this study advocates for a transition in risk assessment methodologies from static approaches (e.g., annual-scale models assuming fixed risk) to dynamic approaches (e.g., seasonal models capturing seasonal variations), and from purely objective to a syn thesis of subjective and objective elements, thereby providing scientific support for th e allocation of disaster resources and risk management strategies.</p>

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Dynamic typhoon risk assessment integrating seasonal variability and social perception: a utility-based framework

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月13日

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  • Guilin Liu,
  • Zifan Shan,
  • Liping Wang,
  • Pubing Yu

摘要

This study addresses the challenges associated with a singular time scale and the insufficient subjective willingness of social groups in assessing typhoon disaster risk. To this end, a multi-timescale risk model has been developed, incorporating a utility function based on typhoon data from Guangdong Province spanning the years 2000–2019. Initially, an annual-seasonal dual-scale probability model is established using the Poisson-Pearson-III composite extreme value distribution to examine seasonal variations in typhoon intensity. Subsequently, a dynamic vulnerability curve is created by integrating the normal information diffusion technique, which quantifies the nonlinear characteristics of agricultural exposure during the autumn under low wind speeds, as well as the cascading losses experienced by urban areas in the summer under high wind speeds. Finally, a logarithmic utility function is introduced to illustrate the propensity of social groups towards extreme hazard sensitivity. The findings reveal that the seasonal-scale model indicates a 50.96% higher loss rate from individual typhoons in the summer compared to the autumn (Table 6), with the expected annual loss being 1.93 times greater than the cumulative losses from summer and autumn (Table 6). This suggests a systematic overestimation inherent in traditional annual-scale assessments. The utility function demonstrates alignment with the expected losses estimated by traditional models at low wind speeds (≤ Force 11) while a significant risk avoidance tendency among social groups is observed at high wind speeds (≥ Force 14), effectively compensating for the traditional model's insensitivity to high loss-low probability events. This research substantiates the advantages of the seasonal scale discretized risk model in dynamically representing the temporal variations and seasonal characteristics of typhoon risk. Furthermore, the incorporation of the utility function enhances the reliability of typhoon risk assessments and has significant implications for typhoon damage mitigation decision-making processes. Consequently, this study advocates for a transition in risk assessment methodologies from static approaches (e.g., annual-scale models assuming fixed risk) to dynamic approaches (e.g., seasonal models capturing seasonal variations), and from purely objective to a syn thesis of subjective and objective elements, thereby providing scientific support for th e allocation of disaster resources and risk management strategies.