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<p>The Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration is a significant platform for China’s Western development strategy. However, frequent geological disasters constrain the region’s socioeconomic development and severely affect its natural ecological environment. Evaluating the susceptibility of urban agglomerations to geological disasters and identifying sensitivity factors are crucial for predicting disaster events, assessing disaster risks, and formulating precise disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Evaluating susceptibility begins by analyzing how regional natural geographic conditions drive disasters to identify primary influencing factors, while sensitivity analysis focuses on detecting critical interactions between factors that amplify disaster impacts. Therefore, this study constructed a susceptibility assessment model for geological disasters and developed a method for sensitivity identification. The specific methods include: (1) constructing a geological disaster susceptibility assessment model; (2) using factor detection and interaction detection functions to screen key influencing factors; (3) combining risk area detection to classify sensitivity levels. In order to improve the accuracy of the geographic detector model, various classification methods were tested on discrete data to select the optimal geographic detector results. The results indicate that elevation, soil type, geomorphological type, and vegetation type significantly affect geological disasters; The research area has an elevation greater than 632&#xa0;m, with soil types of primary inceptisols and anthrosols, and landform types of medium-gradient mountain and inland water, lakes, which has a higher susceptibility; The interaction between soil type and soil erosion increases the sensitivity of disasters, and the interaction between soil near rivers and soil subjected to water erosion is highly sensitive. The research findings provide a scientific basis for the precise prevention and control of high-risk geological disaster areas in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration, and can offer decision-making support for urban planning to avoid sensitive areas and optimize the layout of disaster prevention facilities.</p>

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Susceptibility assessment and sensitivity analysis of geological disasters in Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration based on geographical detector model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月24日

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  • Tengjiao Guo,
  • Qi Cao,
  • Yufu Ma,
  • Liejuan Yang

摘要

The Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration is a significant platform for China’s Western development strategy. However, frequent geological disasters constrain the region’s socioeconomic development and severely affect its natural ecological environment. Evaluating the susceptibility of urban agglomerations to geological disasters and identifying sensitivity factors are crucial for predicting disaster events, assessing disaster risks, and formulating precise disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Evaluating susceptibility begins by analyzing how regional natural geographic conditions drive disasters to identify primary influencing factors, while sensitivity analysis focuses on detecting critical interactions between factors that amplify disaster impacts. Therefore, this study constructed a susceptibility assessment model for geological disasters and developed a method for sensitivity identification. The specific methods include: (1) constructing a geological disaster susceptibility assessment model; (2) using factor detection and interaction detection functions to screen key influencing factors; (3) combining risk area detection to classify sensitivity levels. In order to improve the accuracy of the geographic detector model, various classification methods were tested on discrete data to select the optimal geographic detector results. The results indicate that elevation, soil type, geomorphological type, and vegetation type significantly affect geological disasters; The research area has an elevation greater than 632 m, with soil types of primary inceptisols and anthrosols, and landform types of medium-gradient mountain and inland water, lakes, which has a higher susceptibility; The interaction between soil type and soil erosion increases the sensitivity of disasters, and the interaction between soil near rivers and soil subjected to water erosion is highly sensitive. The research findings provide a scientific basis for the precise prevention and control of high-risk geological disaster areas in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration, and can offer decision-making support for urban planning to avoid sensitive areas and optimize the layout of disaster prevention facilities.