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<p>Presently, empirical rainfall thresholds used for the landslide early warning systems (LEWS) are encumbered by a notably high incidence of false alarms, which is attributed to the substantial rainfall uncertainty in mountainous regions characterized by intricate topography. In this work, a two-year monitoring study within the Majiajing watershed in Yunnan, China was conducted to elucidate the spatial distribution patterns of rainfall in mountainous areas. The findings reveal an intricate interplay between high correlation and significant disparity in rainfall at different elevations. Specifically, the Pearson Correlation Coefficients between rainfall data from the two gauges across multiple temporal scales (monthly, weekly, daily and hourly) consistently exceed 0.9. However, the upstream rainfall markedly surpassed the downstream rainfall, with an average vertical rainfall gradient of 35.6&#xa0;mm/100&#xa0;m over the monitoring period. Further analysis of the daily rainfall highlights that during occurrences of high-intensity rainfall, the upstream rainfall is one grade higher than the downstream rainfall, which is amplified in years characterized by abundant rainfall. Moreover, the identification of Independent Precipitation Events underscores the imperative for heightened vigilance on rainfall conditions in the upstream regions of watersheds. A strategic enhancement to this effect is to advocate for a pronounced increase in the density of rain gauges positioned within areas identified as potential landslide detachment zones, as opposed to augmenting their presence in low-elevation, populated residential regions. This refined approach is poised to significantly elevate the accuracy of LEWS and reduce the probability of mountainous area residents suffering from landslide disasters.</p>

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Spatial variation of rainfall for landslide early warning: an examination from Majiajing watershed in Yunnan, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Jing-Kun Bao,
  • Kun Wang,
  • Chuan-Bing Zhu,
  • Ze Li,
  • Ze-Min Xu,
  • Yun-Fei Zhang,
  • Lin Tian,
  • Yang Yang,
  • Jun-Yao Luo,
  • Tai-Qiang Yang

摘要

Presently, empirical rainfall thresholds used for the landslide early warning systems (LEWS) are encumbered by a notably high incidence of false alarms, which is attributed to the substantial rainfall uncertainty in mountainous regions characterized by intricate topography. In this work, a two-year monitoring study within the Majiajing watershed in Yunnan, China was conducted to elucidate the spatial distribution patterns of rainfall in mountainous areas. The findings reveal an intricate interplay between high correlation and significant disparity in rainfall at different elevations. Specifically, the Pearson Correlation Coefficients between rainfall data from the two gauges across multiple temporal scales (monthly, weekly, daily and hourly) consistently exceed 0.9. However, the upstream rainfall markedly surpassed the downstream rainfall, with an average vertical rainfall gradient of 35.6 mm/100 m over the monitoring period. Further analysis of the daily rainfall highlights that during occurrences of high-intensity rainfall, the upstream rainfall is one grade higher than the downstream rainfall, which is amplified in years characterized by abundant rainfall. Moreover, the identification of Independent Precipitation Events underscores the imperative for heightened vigilance on rainfall conditions in the upstream regions of watersheds. A strategic enhancement to this effect is to advocate for a pronounced increase in the density of rain gauges positioned within areas identified as potential landslide detachment zones, as opposed to augmenting their presence in low-elevation, populated residential regions. This refined approach is poised to significantly elevate the accuracy of LEWS and reduce the probability of mountainous area residents suffering from landslide disasters.