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<p>Debris flows pose significant threats to communities and infrastructure in the high-relief mountain environment of the Karakoram. Despite their destructive potential, systematic risk assessments that integrate hazard, exposure, and vulnerability remain limited for this region. This study develops a multi-criteria framework to evaluate debris flow risk across 32 alluvial fans by combining geomorphometric indicators, exposure proxies, and vulnerability assessments. Hazard was assessed based on catchment morphometry and climate factors, exposure was evaluated using fan area and slope, incision depth, channel width, and building distance to debris flow channels and vulnerability was derived from land use, and structural attributes. Results show that the melton ratio, slope, and rainfall intensity are the primary controls on hazard, whereas fan exposure is strongly influenced by shallow incision, narrow channels, and dense infrastructure within 100&#xa0;m of active channels. At the regional scale, 74.4% of the study area is classified as very low risk, 21.9% as low risk, and less than 4% as moderate to very high risk.&#xa0;At the local (fan) scale, the analysis indicates that 81% of the area exhibits extremely low risk; however, 130 buildings (6.3% of mapped footprints) and critical segments of the Karakoram Highway lie within very high-risk zones. These findings highlight the importance of integrating geomorphic, socioeconomic, and structural indicators for robust debris flow risk assessment and provide a framework to guide targeted mitigation, land-use planning, and climate adaptation in the Karakoram.</p>

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Multi-scale debris flow risk assessment using morphometrics in high-altitude catchments of Northern Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月22日

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  • Yaseen Ullah,
  • Muhammad Shafique,
  • Nisar Ali Shah,
  • Ghazanfar Ali Khattak,
  • Sajid Ullah

摘要

Debris flows pose significant threats to communities and infrastructure in the high-relief mountain environment of the Karakoram. Despite their destructive potential, systematic risk assessments that integrate hazard, exposure, and vulnerability remain limited for this region. This study develops a multi-criteria framework to evaluate debris flow risk across 32 alluvial fans by combining geomorphometric indicators, exposure proxies, and vulnerability assessments. Hazard was assessed based on catchment morphometry and climate factors, exposure was evaluated using fan area and slope, incision depth, channel width, and building distance to debris flow channels and vulnerability was derived from land use, and structural attributes. Results show that the melton ratio, slope, and rainfall intensity are the primary controls on hazard, whereas fan exposure is strongly influenced by shallow incision, narrow channels, and dense infrastructure within 100 m of active channels. At the regional scale, 74.4% of the study area is classified as very low risk, 21.9% as low risk, and less than 4% as moderate to very high risk. At the local (fan) scale, the analysis indicates that 81% of the area exhibits extremely low risk; however, 130 buildings (6.3% of mapped footprints) and critical segments of the Karakoram Highway lie within very high-risk zones. These findings highlight the importance of integrating geomorphic, socioeconomic, and structural indicators for robust debris flow risk assessment and provide a framework to guide targeted mitigation, land-use planning, and climate adaptation in the Karakoram.