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<p>Drought risk assessment and the prediction of transition probability are essential for drought early warning and water resources management. However, studies on spatial transitional properties of drought risk considering the influence of neighboring regions remain limited. Using Hunan Province, China, as a case study, this study addresses this gap by applying Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and three drought risk indicators (i.e., vulnerability, exposure, and resilience), combining Markov chain and Moran’s I index. The key findings were: (1) The annual SPI series from 1960 to 2021 exhibited a fluctuating trend, initially increasing, then decreasing, and finally increasing again. Drought-prone areas were mainly clustered in Shaoyang, Hengyang, and the northern parts of Xiangxi and Yongzhou. (2) Approximately 24.6% and 23.8% of the counties were identified as having medium–high and high drought risk levels, respectively. Drought risk at county level displayed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with higher-risk (i.e., medium–high and high) areas concentrated in the northwestern and southern regions of Hunan, while lower-risk (i.e., medium–low and low) areas were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest of Hunan. (3) The transfer probability of drought risk at county level was influenced by both the county’s own risk level and that of its neighboring counties, with 89% of counties experiencing a simultaneous downward transition. These downward transitions were predominantly observed in the western and southern parts of the province. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of regional drought risk pattern and transition dynamics, thereby enriching the methodological framework for drought risk mitigation.</p>

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Assessment of dynamic drought risk and transition characteristics by combining an indicator-based approach and Markov chain model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Bin Huang,
  • Tao Peng,
  • Tianyi Fan,
  • Vijay P. Singh,
  • Xiaohua Dong,
  • Qingxia Lin,
  • Wenjuan Chang,
  • Ji Liu,
  • Yan Huang,
  • Jiali Guo,
  • Yinghai Li,
  • Dan Yu

摘要

Drought risk assessment and the prediction of transition probability are essential for drought early warning and water resources management. However, studies on spatial transitional properties of drought risk considering the influence of neighboring regions remain limited. Using Hunan Province, China, as a case study, this study addresses this gap by applying Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and three drought risk indicators (i.e., vulnerability, exposure, and resilience), combining Markov chain and Moran’s I index. The key findings were: (1) The annual SPI series from 1960 to 2021 exhibited a fluctuating trend, initially increasing, then decreasing, and finally increasing again. Drought-prone areas were mainly clustered in Shaoyang, Hengyang, and the northern parts of Xiangxi and Yongzhou. (2) Approximately 24.6% and 23.8% of the counties were identified as having medium–high and high drought risk levels, respectively. Drought risk at county level displayed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with higher-risk (i.e., medium–high and high) areas concentrated in the northwestern and southern regions of Hunan, while lower-risk (i.e., medium–low and low) areas were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest of Hunan. (3) The transfer probability of drought risk at county level was influenced by both the county’s own risk level and that of its neighboring counties, with 89% of counties experiencing a simultaneous downward transition. These downward transitions were predominantly observed in the western and southern parts of the province. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of regional drought risk pattern and transition dynamics, thereby enriching the methodological framework for drought risk mitigation.