Scholarlink

<p>Global climate change has intensified in recent decades, posing significant risks to semi-arid regions such as Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models in simulating air temperature extremes in RN during the historical period 1850–2014, and to identify the most suitable model for future climate projections. Using ERA5-Land reanalysis as a reference, model performance was assessed through Taylor diagrams, Pearson correlation, root mean square error (RMSE), and bias. The MRI-ESM2-0 model showed the best agreement with observations and was selected for future projections. Eight extreme temperature indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were analyzed under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2015–2100. Results indicate statistically significant warming trends across all scenarios, particularly under SSP5-8.5, where annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx) exceeds 42&#xa0;°C and Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) surpasses 250 days. Coastal areas are projected to experience increased nocturnal heat stress, while the Western and Central mesoregions will face the most extreme daytime heat. Notably, warming trends persist even under low-emission scenarios, highlighting the urgency of adaptation strategies. These findings underscore regional vulnerabilities to intensifying thermal extremes and provide critical insights for climate-sensitive sectors such as public health, agriculture, and water resource management. This study emphasizes the importance of regional climate model validation and contributes to evidence-based policy planning for climate adaptation and mitigation.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Escalating thermal extremes and climate risk in a Brazilian semi-arid region: insights from ETCCDI indices and CMIP6 model projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月21日

查看全文
  • Daris Correia dos Santos

摘要

Global climate change has intensified in recent decades, posing significant risks to semi-arid regions such as Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models in simulating air temperature extremes in RN during the historical period 1850–2014, and to identify the most suitable model for future climate projections. Using ERA5-Land reanalysis as a reference, model performance was assessed through Taylor diagrams, Pearson correlation, root mean square error (RMSE), and bias. The MRI-ESM2-0 model showed the best agreement with observations and was selected for future projections. Eight extreme temperature indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were analyzed under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2015–2100. Results indicate statistically significant warming trends across all scenarios, particularly under SSP5-8.5, where annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx) exceeds 42 °C and Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) surpasses 250 days. Coastal areas are projected to experience increased nocturnal heat stress, while the Western and Central mesoregions will face the most extreme daytime heat. Notably, warming trends persist even under low-emission scenarios, highlighting the urgency of adaptation strategies. These findings underscore regional vulnerabilities to intensifying thermal extremes and provide critical insights for climate-sensitive sectors such as public health, agriculture, and water resource management. This study emphasizes the importance of regional climate model validation and contributes to evidence-based policy planning for climate adaptation and mitigation.

Graphical abstract