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<p>The Kokcha River Basin in northeastern Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to climate change, poor water management, and decades of conflict. This study analyzes long-term variations in temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and land cover from 1970 to 2023 using hydrometeorological records, GIS-based analysis, and statistical trend methods (Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests). Results show a statistically significant warming trend of + 0.21&#xa0;°C per year, while precipitation exhibits a slight but statistically insignificant decline (–1.07&#xa0;mm/year). Land cover analysis between 2017 and 2024 revealed a 34.5% reduction in snow and glacier extent, which further stresses water availability. Although glacial melt has temporarily sustained flows in alpine regions, downstream discharge has declined, leading to reduced vegetation cover, expansion of barren lands, and greater water scarcity. At Near Keshem station, the basin demonstrates a water potential of approximately 5050&#xa0;Mm<sup>3</sup>/year; however, future availability is threatened by continued warming, declining precipitation, and land degradation. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive and integrated water resources management (IWRM), including groundwater recharge, efficient irrigation practices, and flood control measures, to ensure sustainable water security and socioeconomic stability in the Kokcha Basin.</p>

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To examine the effects of flow analysis and climate change on integrated water resources of the Kokcha River Basin in Afghanistan using GIS software

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月21日

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  • Abbas Gulistani,
  • Mehmet Kazım YETİK

摘要

The Kokcha River Basin in northeastern Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to climate change, poor water management, and decades of conflict. This study analyzes long-term variations in temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and land cover from 1970 to 2023 using hydrometeorological records, GIS-based analysis, and statistical trend methods (Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests). Results show a statistically significant warming trend of + 0.21 °C per year, while precipitation exhibits a slight but statistically insignificant decline (–1.07 mm/year). Land cover analysis between 2017 and 2024 revealed a 34.5% reduction in snow and glacier extent, which further stresses water availability. Although glacial melt has temporarily sustained flows in alpine regions, downstream discharge has declined, leading to reduced vegetation cover, expansion of barren lands, and greater water scarcity. At Near Keshem station, the basin demonstrates a water potential of approximately 5050 Mm3/year; however, future availability is threatened by continued warming, declining precipitation, and land degradation. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive and integrated water resources management (IWRM), including groundwater recharge, efficient irrigation practices, and flood control measures, to ensure sustainable water security and socioeconomic stability in the Kokcha Basin.