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<p>This study presents a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Meghalaya, integrating region-specific seismicity and incorporating uncertainties in seismic hazard parameters. A comprehensive earthquake dataset from 1861 to 2022 is compiled from historical and instrumental records. The study area is divided into grids of 0.05°×0.05°, considering seismic sources within a 350&#xa0;km radius. A seismotectonic map is developed by combining seismicity and fault data, and seismicity parameters are estimated using the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are addressed through bootstrap resampling (Kernel density (K-D) estimation and statistical modeling) and logic tree framework to strengthen the robustness and reliability of PSHA. This study generates a seismic hazard curve, uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) with 95% uncertainty bands, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps at bedrock level as well as surface level for 475- and 2475-year return periods. The PGA values are estimated as 0.47–0.57&#xa0;g and 0.9–1.0&#xa0;g at bedrock level and 0.5–1.0&#xa0;g and 0.8–1.8&#xa0;g at surface level for 475- and 2475-year return periods, respectively. The results highlight higher seismic hazard levels in northern and central Meghalaya influenced by faults in the Shillong Plateau and Eastern Himalayan region. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of site-specific seismic hazards, aiding ground motion selection and resilience against potential earthquakes.</p>

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Meghalaya, India: integrating region-specific seismicity with uncertainties

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月19日

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  • Aakash Kumar,
  • Needhi Kotoky

摘要

This study presents a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Meghalaya, integrating region-specific seismicity and incorporating uncertainties in seismic hazard parameters. A comprehensive earthquake dataset from 1861 to 2022 is compiled from historical and instrumental records. The study area is divided into grids of 0.05°×0.05°, considering seismic sources within a 350 km radius. A seismotectonic map is developed by combining seismicity and fault data, and seismicity parameters are estimated using the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are addressed through bootstrap resampling (Kernel density (K-D) estimation and statistical modeling) and logic tree framework to strengthen the robustness and reliability of PSHA. This study generates a seismic hazard curve, uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) with 95% uncertainty bands, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps at bedrock level as well as surface level for 475- and 2475-year return periods. The PGA values are estimated as 0.47–0.57 g and 0.9–1.0 g at bedrock level and 0.5–1.0 g and 0.8–1.8 g at surface level for 475- and 2475-year return periods, respectively. The results highlight higher seismic hazard levels in northern and central Meghalaya influenced by faults in the Shillong Plateau and Eastern Himalayan region. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of site-specific seismic hazards, aiding ground motion selection and resilience against potential earthquakes.