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<p>Compound heat and precipitation extremes (CHPEs) can lead to severe and widespread impacts due to their combined effects. This study investigates future changes in CHPEs across seven climatic regions of Vietnam using the high-resolution CMIP6-VN dataset (~ 10&#xa0;km) and future population projections. Extreme events are identified using the 95th percentile of historical data (1980–2014), with a compound event defined when at least three consecutive days of extreme temperature coincide with an extreme precipitation within a 7-day window. The assessment with CMIP6-VN indicates that it effectively reproduces the spatial and seasonal variability of CHPEs during the historical period of 1980–2014. It accurately identifies regions with both high and low frequencies, as well as seasonal peaks, demonstrating high reliability in projecting future CHPE trends. In the future, the changes in CHPE events vary by Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6, most regions exhibit a slight, statistically insignificant increase in CHPEs, while SSP2-4.5 shows a significant increase across all regions. SSP5-8.5 exhibits the most pronounced rise, with some areas experiencing up to 15 events per year by the end of the twenty-first century. Although precipitation hazard days remain relatively stable, the number of days with extreme temperatures increases substantially, indicating that future CHPEs will be primarily driven by rising temperatures. Seasonal distributions of CHPEs shift, with a marked increase toward the later months of the year. Under SSP5-8.5, the number of CHPEs rises sharply, particularly in northern regions, where events are projected to occur more than once per month from May to September. Regarding the corresponding number of people exposed to CHPEs, although the population is projected to decline after peaking around mid-century, exposure to CHPEs increases significantly under warmer scenarios, emphasizing climate change as the dominant driver of future risk. Indeed, quantifying the contributions of climate change and population change to future population exposure shows that, while population change has a notable influence in some regions during the early to mid-century, climate change is the dominant driver across all regions and scenarios.</p>

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Increasing compound heat and precipitation extremes and population exposure in a warming Vietnam

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月4日

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  • Tung Nguyen-Duy,
  • Thanh Ngo-Duc,
  • Dzung Nguyen-Le,
  • Thanh Nguyen-Xuan,
  • Quan Tran-Anh

摘要

Compound heat and precipitation extremes (CHPEs) can lead to severe and widespread impacts due to their combined effects. This study investigates future changes in CHPEs across seven climatic regions of Vietnam using the high-resolution CMIP6-VN dataset (~ 10 km) and future population projections. Extreme events are identified using the 95th percentile of historical data (1980–2014), with a compound event defined when at least three consecutive days of extreme temperature coincide with an extreme precipitation within a 7-day window. The assessment with CMIP6-VN indicates that it effectively reproduces the spatial and seasonal variability of CHPEs during the historical period of 1980–2014. It accurately identifies regions with both high and low frequencies, as well as seasonal peaks, demonstrating high reliability in projecting future CHPE trends. In the future, the changes in CHPE events vary by Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6, most regions exhibit a slight, statistically insignificant increase in CHPEs, while SSP2-4.5 shows a significant increase across all regions. SSP5-8.5 exhibits the most pronounced rise, with some areas experiencing up to 15 events per year by the end of the twenty-first century. Although precipitation hazard days remain relatively stable, the number of days with extreme temperatures increases substantially, indicating that future CHPEs will be primarily driven by rising temperatures. Seasonal distributions of CHPEs shift, with a marked increase toward the later months of the year. Under SSP5-8.5, the number of CHPEs rises sharply, particularly in northern regions, where events are projected to occur more than once per month from May to September. Regarding the corresponding number of people exposed to CHPEs, although the population is projected to decline after peaking around mid-century, exposure to CHPEs increases significantly under warmer scenarios, emphasizing climate change as the dominant driver of future risk. Indeed, quantifying the contributions of climate change and population change to future population exposure shows that, while population change has a notable influence in some regions during the early to mid-century, climate change is the dominant driver across all regions and scenarios.