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<p>In this study, the precursory seismic activity before a major earthquake was investigated along the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone (SASZ), using the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique. The earthquake catalogue (1980–2020, Mw 3.3–9.0) was rigorously processed to ensure completeness, then utilized in iterative tests to determine the proper parameters for the PI algorithm. Retrospective tests using nine strong-to-major earthquakes, validated by the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagram, determined the optimal PI parameters for the SASZ: 10-year time intervals (for both change and forecast windows) and a target earthquake magnitude of Mw ≥ 6.0. Consequently, to assess the potential areas for future major earthquakes, the most up-to-date earthquake datasets were analyzed by the PI method using these parameters. The present-day results revealed potential future major earthquake locations along the SASZ to be: (i) inland and western offshore of Sumatra Island, (ii) southern and eastern offshore of Nicobar Islands, and (iii) western and southern Myanmar. Hence, urgent action is needed to develop effective plans for mitigating seismic and tsunami hazards.</p>

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Application of a pattern informatics algorithm to forecasting the locations of future major earthquakes along the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月15日

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  • Premwadee Traitangwong,
  • Sutthikan Khamsiri,
  • Santi Pailoplee

摘要

In this study, the precursory seismic activity before a major earthquake was investigated along the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone (SASZ), using the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique. The earthquake catalogue (1980–2020, Mw 3.3–9.0) was rigorously processed to ensure completeness, then utilized in iterative tests to determine the proper parameters for the PI algorithm. Retrospective tests using nine strong-to-major earthquakes, validated by the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagram, determined the optimal PI parameters for the SASZ: 10-year time intervals (for both change and forecast windows) and a target earthquake magnitude of Mw ≥ 6.0. Consequently, to assess the potential areas for future major earthquakes, the most up-to-date earthquake datasets were analyzed by the PI method using these parameters. The present-day results revealed potential future major earthquake locations along the SASZ to be: (i) inland and western offshore of Sumatra Island, (ii) southern and eastern offshore of Nicobar Islands, and (iii) western and southern Myanmar. Hence, urgent action is needed to develop effective plans for mitigating seismic and tsunami hazards.