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<p>We analyze the structure of the world trade network over 2019–2024, spanning the Covid-19 crisis and the 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Using a network-based approach grounded in non-local indicators, we uncover in particular both the immediate and persistent effects of the Ukrainian conflict on global markets and reveal distinct patterns within clusters such as the G20, EU, and BRICS. Metric evaluations and community detection algorithms based on communicability and resistance distances show that, from a trade-network perspective, the 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine constituted a major structural shock—one that affected country blocs in markedly different ways and contrasted sharply with the more uniform impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>

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Analyzing the Global Trade Network in the Aftermath of Large-Scale Invasion of Ukraine: An Empirical Account Covering 2019-2024

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月19日

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  • Paolo Bartesaghi,
  • Edoardo Beretta,
  • Raul Caruso

摘要

We analyze the structure of the world trade network over 2019–2024, spanning the Covid-19 crisis and the 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Using a network-based approach grounded in non-local indicators, we uncover in particular both the immediate and persistent effects of the Ukrainian conflict on global markets and reveal distinct patterns within clusters such as the G20, EU, and BRICS. Metric evaluations and community detection algorithms based on communicability and resistance distances show that, from a trade-network perspective, the 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine constituted a major structural shock—one that affected country blocs in markedly different ways and contrasted sharply with the more uniform impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.