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<p>This study presents an innovative theoretical framework that extends Isard’s market potential model by incorporating concepts from Peace Economics and conflict theory into a gravitational approach. On the one hand, this extended model considers the positive effect on income given by short distances and the centre of gravity in markets. On the other hand, it considers the negative impact of wars, military and political strategies, and social instability on key variables such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation. The work covers the period from 2018 to 2022, thereby allowing a comparative analysis between the pre-war years and the wartime context. This time frame enables a comparative assessment of the pre-war economic structure and the subsequent economic shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It also includes the pandemic phase, allowing to distinguish between structural trends and exceptional disruptions. Through an empirical investigation focused on the European Union, the study highlights the measurable effect of conflicts at the regional level. The results indicate that geographical distance from the conflict is a determining factor, with&#xa0;the negative impact intensifying as proximity to the conflict’s epicenter increases. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the interaction between economic and geopolitical dynamics, offering an innovative methodological approach to assess the influence of conflicts on global markets.</p>

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The Cost of Proximity: A Spatial Gravity Model of the Ukraine War’s Economic Impact

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月23日

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  • Luigi Capoani,
  • Piergiorgio Martini

摘要

This study presents an innovative theoretical framework that extends Isard’s market potential model by incorporating concepts from Peace Economics and conflict theory into a gravitational approach. On the one hand, this extended model considers the positive effect on income given by short distances and the centre of gravity in markets. On the other hand, it considers the negative impact of wars, military and political strategies, and social instability on key variables such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation. The work covers the period from 2018 to 2022, thereby allowing a comparative analysis between the pre-war years and the wartime context. This time frame enables a comparative assessment of the pre-war economic structure and the subsequent economic shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It also includes the pandemic phase, allowing to distinguish between structural trends and exceptional disruptions. Through an empirical investigation focused on the European Union, the study highlights the measurable effect of conflicts at the regional level. The results indicate that geographical distance from the conflict is a determining factor, with the negative impact intensifying as proximity to the conflict’s epicenter increases. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the interaction between economic and geopolitical dynamics, offering an innovative methodological approach to assess the influence of conflicts on global markets.