Background This study analyzes the impact of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate scenarios on the suitability of different eucalyptus species for cultivation in South America. With climate change posing significant challenges, understanding the adaptability of eucalyptus species to future conditions is essential for promoting sustainable forestry practices. The primary objective is to identify the most suitable regions for eucalyptus cultivation under projected climate scenarios and propose adaptive strategies to ensure long-term sustainability. We employed agroclimatic zoning as the main methodological framework, integrating historical data with future climate projections. Key variables analyzed included air temperature, accumulated precipitation, water deficit, and mean altitude. Water availability was assessed using Thornthwaite and Mather’s water balance method, which accounts for climate factors and soil characteristics. Data processing was conducted using QGIS and Python 3.8, encompassing four CMIP6 scenarios over four timeframes: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2081, and 2081–2100. Results Our findings indicate that most South American countries experienced a reduction in suitable areas for eucalyptus cultivation, with declines observed in Venezuela (50.8%), Bolivia (28%), Guyana (27.1%), Argentina (24%), Paraguay (13%), Peru (13%), and Colombia (6%). Conversely, Uruguay, Brazil, and Ecuador gained favorable areas in specific scenarios. Species resilience varied significantly under climate stressors. <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Eucalyptus camaldulensis</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Corymbia citriodora</Emphasis> demonstrated high resilience to heat stress, maintaining 43.50% suitability in affected regions. <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Eucalyptus cloeziana</Emphasis> (13.87%) and <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Eucalyptus saligna</Emphasis> (19.96%) were better adapted to water deficit, while <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">E. camaldulensis</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">C. citriodora</Emphasis> showed lower adaptability. <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Corymbia citriodora</Emphasis> emerged as the most versatile species, with a total suitability of 14.35% in some scenarios, whereas <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Eucalyptus saligna</Emphasis> was the least versatile, with just 2.44%. Combined stressors, such as heat and water deficits, pose significant challenges for eucalyptus cultivation, underscoring the need for targeted adaptation strategies. Conclusions This study provides critical insights into climate zoning and planting practices, offering valuable guidance for researchers, policymakers, and forestry practitioners in South America. The findings have far-reaching implications for sustainable forestry management, emphasizing the urgency of preparing for changing climate conditions.

Redefining Eucalyptus cultivation in South America: adaptive strategies under future climate scenarios

期刊论文
发表日期：

2025年5月23日

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Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido,
Guilherme Botega Torsoni,
Rafael Fausto de Lima,
Glauco de Souza Rolim,
Daniel Zimmermann Mesquita

摘要

Background

This study analyzes the impact of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate scenarios on the suitability of different eucalyptus species for cultivation in South America. With climate change posing significant challenges, understanding the adaptability of eucalyptus species to future conditions is essential for promoting sustainable forestry practices. The primary objective is to identify the most suitable regions for eucalyptus cultivation under projected climate scenarios and propose adaptive strategies to ensure long-term sustainability. We employed agroclimatic zoning as the main methodological framework, integrating historical data with future climate projections. Key variables analyzed included air temperature, accumulated precipitation, water deficit, and mean altitude. Water availability was assessed using Thornthwaite and Mather’s water balance method, which accounts for climate factors and soil characteristics. Data processing was conducted using QGIS and Python 3.8, encompassing four CMIP6 scenarios over four timeframes: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2081, and 2081–2100.

Results

Our findings indicate that most South American countries experienced a reduction in suitable areas for eucalyptus cultivation, with declines observed in Venezuela (50.8%), Bolivia (28%), Guyana (27.1%), Argentina (24%), Paraguay (13%), Peru (13%), and Colombia (6%). Conversely, Uruguay, Brazil, and Ecuador gained favorable areas in specific scenarios. Species resilience varied significantly under climate stressors. Eucalyptus camaldulensis and Corymbia citriodora demonstrated high resilience to heat stress, maintaining 43.50% suitability in affected regions. Eucalyptus cloeziana (13.87%) and Eucalyptus saligna (19.96%) were better adapted to water deficit, while E. camaldulensis and C. citriodora showed lower adaptability. Corymbia citriodora emerged as the most versatile species, with a total suitability of 14.35% in some scenarios, whereas Eucalyptus saligna was the least versatile, with just 2.44%. Combined stressors, such as heat and water deficits, pose significant challenges for eucalyptus cultivation, underscoring the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

Conclusions

This study provides critical insights into climate zoning and planting practices, offering valuable guidance for researchers, policymakers, and forestry practitioners in South America. The findings have far-reaching implications for sustainable forestry management, emphasizing the urgency of preparing for changing climate conditions.