<p>Geological information plays a critical role in mineral development decisions, yet its economic value remains difficult to interpret under finite mineral tenure. This study developed a rights-constrained real options framework to quantify how geological dispersion contributes to conditional option value within a bounded decision window. Using two operating gold mines and a synthetic variance–tenure interaction design, we separated the economic effects of geological heterogeneity from the mechanical impact of shortened decision horizons. The results showed that, holding tenure constant, greater geological dispersion systematically expands conditional upside while finite tenure truncates high-payoff realizations by limiting the time available for favorable states to emerge. When non-exercise outcomes dominate, conventional percentile measures become uninformative, highlighting the need for a conditional interpretation of decision-relevant value based on exercise probability and payoff distribution. Robustness checks using a discrete-time binomial tree and supplementary shock simulations confirmed that the tenure-induced truncation mechanism is not sensitive to the continuous-time specification. These findings indicate that geological information generates economic value primarily through its effect on the right tail of outcomes rather than average project performance, and that its realization depends on the interaction between uncertainty, threshold-based decisions, and institutional time constraints, with direct implications for resource evaluation and tenure design.</p>