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<p>Studying the eco-geological environmental carrying capacity (EGECC) of mining areas is essential for balancing coal mining and environmental protection. In this study, we defined the concept and characteristics of the EGECC in mining areas and propose a 1–3–12 hierarchical evaluation index system. Utilizing remote sensing data and ArcGIS, we conducted the zoning design of the Yili Mining Area’s EGECC and investigated the spatio–temporal evolution trends from 2014 to 2024. Next, we employed a system dynamics model to analyze the causal relationships among influencing factors and constructed a simulation model of the Yili Mining Area’s EGECC in VENSIM software. The results of the study indicated that the EGECC of the Yili Mining Area can be categorized into four levels: low, medium, higher and high. From 2014 to 2024, the EGECC of the Yili Mining Area showed a significant downward trend. The proportion of high level areas decreased from 53.45% to 10.79%, while the proportion of medium level areas increased from 6.33% to 60.73%. The ecological environment, geological conditions, coal mining intensity (CMI), and other factors significantly impacted the eco-geological environment. From 2010 to 2030, the EGECC of the Yili Mining Area is projected to gradually decline. This study confirmed that the most effective strategy for improving the EGECC is to regulate CMI. Specifically, reducing mining height and decreasing propulsion speed are identified as optimal approaches for lowering CMI.</p>

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Evaluation and Simulation Prediction of Ecological Geological Environment Carrying Capacity in the Yili Mining Area, Xinjiang

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月23日

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  • Jiaqi Wang,
  • Yanli Huang,
  • Mohammad Waqar Ali Asad

摘要

Studying the eco-geological environmental carrying capacity (EGECC) of mining areas is essential for balancing coal mining and environmental protection. In this study, we defined the concept and characteristics of the EGECC in mining areas and propose a 1–3–12 hierarchical evaluation index system. Utilizing remote sensing data and ArcGIS, we conducted the zoning design of the Yili Mining Area’s EGECC and investigated the spatio–temporal evolution trends from 2014 to 2024. Next, we employed a system dynamics model to analyze the causal relationships among influencing factors and constructed a simulation model of the Yili Mining Area’s EGECC in VENSIM software. The results of the study indicated that the EGECC of the Yili Mining Area can be categorized into four levels: low, medium, higher and high. From 2014 to 2024, the EGECC of the Yili Mining Area showed a significant downward trend. The proportion of high level areas decreased from 53.45% to 10.79%, while the proportion of medium level areas increased from 6.33% to 60.73%. The ecological environment, geological conditions, coal mining intensity (CMI), and other factors significantly impacted the eco-geological environment. From 2010 to 2030, the EGECC of the Yili Mining Area is projected to gradually decline. This study confirmed that the most effective strategy for improving the EGECC is to regulate CMI. Specifically, reducing mining height and decreasing propulsion speed are identified as optimal approaches for lowering CMI.