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<p>The global power system is currently undergoing three fundamental transitions: decarbonization, marketization, and digitalization. These changes have transcended merely technical considerations, positioning themselves as key arenas for geopolitical competition and socio-economic restructuring. A complementary and coordinated development model among diverse power generation agents can effectively reconcile the seemingly contradictory goals of transitioning to low-carbon energy and ensuring energy security. Our study leverages Empirical Mode Decomposition to establish an analytical framework for China's power generation coordination. Resource endowments, economic growth, market structure, and climatic and environmental conditions core factors influencing the coordinated development of power generation, with market structure superseding resources as the pivotal variable. By 2030, the share of renewable energy in each Chinese province will reach 23%—28%, with twelve provinces expected to meet or exceed their thermal power capacity targets on schedule, particularly in the southwest and northwest regions. To facilitate the achievement of China's dual carbon goals, ongoing efforts must focus on enhancing regional energy delivery planning, advancing energy storage technologies, increasing local consumption.</p>

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Collaborative optimization pathway of provincial power generation structure in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月17日

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  • Yan Nie,
  • Guoxing Zhang,
  • Yutao Wang,
  • Bin Su,
  • Yichen Feng,
  • Lean Yu

摘要

The global power system is currently undergoing three fundamental transitions: decarbonization, marketization, and digitalization. These changes have transcended merely technical considerations, positioning themselves as key arenas for geopolitical competition and socio-economic restructuring. A complementary and coordinated development model among diverse power generation agents can effectively reconcile the seemingly contradictory goals of transitioning to low-carbon energy and ensuring energy security. Our study leverages Empirical Mode Decomposition to establish an analytical framework for China's power generation coordination. Resource endowments, economic growth, market structure, and climatic and environmental conditions core factors influencing the coordinated development of power generation, with market structure superseding resources as the pivotal variable. By 2030, the share of renewable energy in each Chinese province will reach 23%—28%, with twelve provinces expected to meet or exceed their thermal power capacity targets on schedule, particularly in the southwest and northwest regions. To facilitate the achievement of China's dual carbon goals, ongoing efforts must focus on enhancing regional energy delivery planning, advancing energy storage technologies, increasing local consumption.