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<p>Antibiotic misuse in livestock farming poses serious threats to ecological sustainability and consumer health. Based on survey data from 1,003 meat duck farmers in five Chinese provinces, this study uses the Heckman two-stage model and the Endogenous Switching Regression model to examine how contract types influence farmers’ adoption of antibiotic substitutes and substitution intensity, and to assess the production effects of substitution. The results show that tight contracts significantly promote both adoption and substitution intensity, whereas loose contracts inhibit them. Antibiotic substitution has a certain negative effect on production performance. Under the counterfactual scenario, the survival rate of adopters would have increased by 0.277% had they not adopted substitutes, while that of non-adopters would have decreased by 1.238% had they adopted them. Analysis by substitute type further shows that probiotics and bacteriophages negatively affect production performance, whereas traditional Chinese medicine has a positive effect. These findings provide useful policy implications for reducing antibiotic misuse in livestock farming.</p>

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Contractual type and antibiotic substitution: an empirical study based on meat duck farmers in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月9日

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  • Jinpeng Dong,
  • Lei Cong,
  • Alan Renwick,
  • Lingzhi Liu,
  • Wei Zhang,
  • Yuan Tao

摘要

Antibiotic misuse in livestock farming poses serious threats to ecological sustainability and consumer health. Based on survey data from 1,003 meat duck farmers in five Chinese provinces, this study uses the Heckman two-stage model and the Endogenous Switching Regression model to examine how contract types influence farmers’ adoption of antibiotic substitutes and substitution intensity, and to assess the production effects of substitution. The results show that tight contracts significantly promote both adoption and substitution intensity, whereas loose contracts inhibit them. Antibiotic substitution has a certain negative effect on production performance. Under the counterfactual scenario, the survival rate of adopters would have increased by 0.277% had they not adopted substitutes, while that of non-adopters would have decreased by 1.238% had they adopted them. Analysis by substitute type further shows that probiotics and bacteriophages negatively affect production performance, whereas traditional Chinese medicine has a positive effect. These findings provide useful policy implications for reducing antibiotic misuse in livestock farming.