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<p>China’s ambitious “dual carbon” policy requires a major transformation of the national energy sector. Given the water-intensive nature of energy production, this transformation is closely tied to future water resource challenges. This study develops a top-down water accounting framework to systematically quantify the current water consumption associated with energy production in China. Combining Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with policy scenarios, it further projects the spatiotemporal evolution of water consumption, aiming to uncover the potential impacts of the “dual carbon” policy on China’s future water consumption in energy production. Results show pronounced spatial heterogeneity in China’s current water consumption for energy production, generally decreasing from north to south, with fossil-fired power generation accounting for 73.6% of the total. Multi-scenario projections indicate that under the continued implementation of the “dual carbon” policy, China’s transition to low-carbon energy is expected to substantially reduce water demand in energy production. By 2060, the policy is projected to deliver water savings of about 59.1%–68.9% in total national water consumption for energy production. This study provides important scientific evidence and policy insights for coordinated water-energy management and long-term sustainable development in the context of climate change.</p>

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The impact of the “dual carbon” policy on future water consumption for energy production in China: a scenario-based assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Mingming Xie,
  • Jianyun Zhang,
  • Zhenxin Bao,
  • Guoqing Wang,
  • Cuishan Liu,
  • Feifei Yuan,
  • Jie Wang,
  • Yueyang Wang

摘要

China’s ambitious “dual carbon” policy requires a major transformation of the national energy sector. Given the water-intensive nature of energy production, this transformation is closely tied to future water resource challenges. This study develops a top-down water accounting framework to systematically quantify the current water consumption associated with energy production in China. Combining Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with policy scenarios, it further projects the spatiotemporal evolution of water consumption, aiming to uncover the potential impacts of the “dual carbon” policy on China’s future water consumption in energy production. Results show pronounced spatial heterogeneity in China’s current water consumption for energy production, generally decreasing from north to south, with fossil-fired power generation accounting for 73.6% of the total. Multi-scenario projections indicate that under the continued implementation of the “dual carbon” policy, China’s transition to low-carbon energy is expected to substantially reduce water demand in energy production. By 2060, the policy is projected to deliver water savings of about 59.1%–68.9% in total national water consumption for energy production. This study provides important scientific evidence and policy insights for coordinated water-energy management and long-term sustainable development in the context of climate change.