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<p>Since 1949, China’s cotton cultivation belt has experienced a significant northwestward shift, migrating from the Yellow River (YERB) and Yangtze River Basin (YARB) toward arid Northwest China (NC). While climate change, technological advances, and economic policies are widely considered important contributors to this process, their synergistic interactions remain insufficiently understood, constraining the formulation of effective climate adaptation strategies. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution and heterogeneity of China’s cotton belt from 1949 to 2020. Using spatial statistics, GeoDetector, and structural equation modeling (SEM), it characterizes the response patterns associated with changes in cotton cultivation area from 1980 to 2020 within a climate-economy-technology-policy (CETP) nexus framework. Results show that cotton belt’s gravity center shifted by 1,227.94&#xa0;km northwestward, averaging 156.20&#xa0;km per decade. This shift was driven by synergistic interactions among rising temperatures, economic incentives, technological advancements, and policy support. At the national level, key climatic factors included precipitation (PP) and minimum temperature during flowering to boll-opening (TFB), while critical management factors are non-farm employment (OPT), film usage (TF), mechanization (MECH), and cost (Cost); their influence, ranked by <i>q</i>-value, is: PP &gt; TFB &gt; TF &gt; OPT &gt; MECH &gt; Cost. Regionally, in irrigated zones, thermal variables and technological factors exhibited strong interactions, whereas in rainfed-irrigated areas, rising costs and non-farm employment were associated with declining cotton cultivation. These findings highlight the importance of region-specific management strategies, such as promoting water-efficient technologies in NC and developing lower-risk adaptation packages in the YERB and YARB. This study provides a transferable analytical framework for understanding crop shifts under global change.</p>

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The climate-economy-technology-policy nexus driving the shift of cotton belt in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月19日

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  • Yaqiu Zhu,
  • Guanpeng Dong,
  • Liang Sun,
  • Shu Wang,
  • Yadong Yang

摘要

Since 1949, China’s cotton cultivation belt has experienced a significant northwestward shift, migrating from the Yellow River (YERB) and Yangtze River Basin (YARB) toward arid Northwest China (NC). While climate change, technological advances, and economic policies are widely considered important contributors to this process, their synergistic interactions remain insufficiently understood, constraining the formulation of effective climate adaptation strategies. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution and heterogeneity of China’s cotton belt from 1949 to 2020. Using spatial statistics, GeoDetector, and structural equation modeling (SEM), it characterizes the response patterns associated with changes in cotton cultivation area from 1980 to 2020 within a climate-economy-technology-policy (CETP) nexus framework. Results show that cotton belt’s gravity center shifted by 1,227.94 km northwestward, averaging 156.20 km per decade. This shift was driven by synergistic interactions among rising temperatures, economic incentives, technological advancements, and policy support. At the national level, key climatic factors included precipitation (PP) and minimum temperature during flowering to boll-opening (TFB), while critical management factors are non-farm employment (OPT), film usage (TF), mechanization (MECH), and cost (Cost); their influence, ranked by q-value, is: PP > TFB > TF > OPT > MECH > Cost. Regionally, in irrigated zones, thermal variables and technological factors exhibited strong interactions, whereas in rainfed-irrigated areas, rising costs and non-farm employment were associated with declining cotton cultivation. These findings highlight the importance of region-specific management strategies, such as promoting water-efficient technologies in NC and developing lower-risk adaptation packages in the YERB and YARB. This study provides a transferable analytical framework for understanding crop shifts under global change.