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<p>Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” goals, this study evaluates the carbon-reduction effects of New Energy Vehicle Promotion Policies (NVPPs) using a time-varying difference-in-differences model, drawing on panel data from 278 cities spanning 2013 to 2022. The findings confirm a causal relationship with dynamically strengthening impacts: starting from the third year, NVPPs significantly reduce per capita carbon emissions by 5.2% (0.506 tons) relative to the 2013 baseline. Heterogeneity analysis reveals more significant emission reduction effects in cities with favorable climatic conditions, non-automotive industrial cities, and those with high-intensity policy implementation. However, in regions with coal-dependent power grids, the carbon-reduction effect of NVPPs is muted due to lower operating costs, underscoring the importance of synergistic decarbonization in the power sector. The robustness of the results is verified through tests including the Goodman-Bacon decomposition and instrumental variables. Integrating life-cycle and rebound effect perspectives, this study emphasizes that the carbon-reduction efficacy of NVPPs is contingent on local contexts. It advocates shifting from one-size-fits-all policies to contextually tailored strategies, offering actionable guidance for sustainable transportation transitions.</p>

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The heterogeneous impacts of new energy vehicle promotion on carbon emissions: a quasi-natural experiment in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月6日

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  • Weifeng Lu,
  • Yabing Qin,
  • Guifang Wang

摘要

Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” goals, this study evaluates the carbon-reduction effects of New Energy Vehicle Promotion Policies (NVPPs) using a time-varying difference-in-differences model, drawing on panel data from 278 cities spanning 2013 to 2022. The findings confirm a causal relationship with dynamically strengthening impacts: starting from the third year, NVPPs significantly reduce per capita carbon emissions by 5.2% (0.506 tons) relative to the 2013 baseline. Heterogeneity analysis reveals more significant emission reduction effects in cities with favorable climatic conditions, non-automotive industrial cities, and those with high-intensity policy implementation. However, in regions with coal-dependent power grids, the carbon-reduction effect of NVPPs is muted due to lower operating costs, underscoring the importance of synergistic decarbonization in the power sector. The robustness of the results is verified through tests including the Goodman-Bacon decomposition and instrumental variables. Integrating life-cycle and rebound effect perspectives, this study emphasizes that the carbon-reduction efficacy of NVPPs is contingent on local contexts. It advocates shifting from one-size-fits-all policies to contextually tailored strategies, offering actionable guidance for sustainable transportation transitions.